Tariff-driven caution that contributed to store shelves being stocked early for the holidays this year will exacerbate the usual seasonal slowdown in import cargo volume at major U.S. container ports in November and December, according to the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
A 20% so-called fentanyl tariff on China will fall to 10% on November 10, NRF pointed out. In the meantime, the Trump administration has pushed back for a year a twice-delayed increase in reciprocal tariffs on China that it intended to implement on November 10. An existing 10% reciprocal tariff on China imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act remains in effect, but the Supreme Court heard arguments on November 5 in a case challenging the administration’s use of the emergency powers when applied to duties. Observers noted that several Supreme Court justices expressed skepticism about the government’s arguments supporting use of the IEEPA in imposing tariffs.
U.S. ports covered by Port Tracker handled 2.1 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units, one 20-foot container or its equivalent, during September, the latest month for which final data is available, down 9.3% from August and 7.4% year over year.
Ports haven’t reported numbers for October yet, however Port Tracker projected import volume for the month at 1.99 million TEU, down 11.5% year over year. Port Tracker forecast November volume at 1.85 million TEU, down 14.4% year over year, and December volume at 1.75 million TEU, down 17.9%. After July’s peak of 2.39 million TEU, November and December are projected as the lowest volume months of the year. December would be the lowest volume month since 1.62 million TEU in March 2023.
Although November and December are traditionally slow months at the ports, the large year-over-year volume declines occurred partly because of tariff-driven front-loading of late-year cargo earlier this year in avoidance of threatened additional tariffs and partly because of elevated shipping in late 2024 over concerns about looming port strikes.
Port volume in the first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.7% year over year. The forecast for the full year is for 24.9 million TEU, down 2.3% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024. The January 2026 forecast is for 1.98 million TEU, down 11.1% year over year, February for 1.85 million TEU, down 9%, and March for 1.79 million TEU, down 16.7%.
“We’ve spent most of the year worried about the impact of tariffs on both inflation and the supply chain, but the holiday season is here and mitigation efforts appear to have paid off,”said Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “Store shelves are well-stocked and the effect on prices has been minimized, largely thanks to retailers taking steps like front-loading imports during times of low or delayed tariff increases or absorbing the costs themselves. Consumers should be able to find the products they want at prices they like.”
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said volatile tariff policy has made long-term planning difficult for importers and ocean carriers alike. “These conditions make market forecasting highly uncertain,” Hackett said. “Our trade outlook is for a small decline in imports this year compared with 2024 and a further, larger decline in the first quarter of 2026.”
Global Port Tracker, produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
