The National Retail Federation forecasts holiday-season sales growth between 3.7% and 4.2% from November 1 to December 31 compared to same period in 2024.
In cash terms, the forecast anticipates spending between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion. At those levels, the 2025 holiday season, as defined by NRF, will surpass a trillion dollars in sales for the first time. The 2024 holiday sales increased 4.3% from those in the 2023 November/December period to $976.1 billion.
Still, macroeconomic developments regarding government actions and inflation could affect how consumers spend money in the holidays and the real profits retailers realize. NRF said this year’s Federal government shutdown has occurred in a time period when consumers are making initial holiday purchases and could influence how sales trends develop. In addition to direct effects on federal workers, delays in government spending will result in lost private-sector income, further eroding consumer demand, NRF noted. Although many negative economic impacts could be temporary, their magnitude will escalate the longer the shutdown lasts, NRF added.
An NRF holiday survey recently completed by Prosper Insights & Analytics, a poll conducted independently of the holiday sales forecast study, indicated consumers plan to spend $890.49 per person on average this year for holiday gifts, food, decorations and other seasonal items. The amount rates as the second highest in the survey’s 23-year history.
For its part, the NRF holiday forecast arises from economic modeling using various key indicators including consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation and previous monthly retail sales releases. NRF’s holiday calculation excludes automobile dealer, gasoline station and restaurant revenues to focus on core retail.
NRF expects retailers to hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers for the holiday season, a number consistent with a slower-paced overall labor market. In 2024, retailers brought on 442,000 holiday hires. Some hiring in 2025 might have been pulled forward to support major retail promotions in October. Because of the fluctuating tariff threats and impositions emerging from the White House, NRF maintained, retailers will be closely monitoring spending patterns and waiting to make staff additions should demand strengthen throughout the holiday season.
“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in announcing the holiday forecast. “We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones.”
Mark mathews, NRF chief economist and executive director of research, added, “The economy has continued to show surprising resilience in a year marked by trade uncertainty and persistent inflation. As tariffs have induced an uptick in consumer prices, retailers have tried to hold the line on prices given the uncertainty about trade policies.”
