Monthly import cargo volume at the major container ports in the United States looks to fall substantially for the remainder of 2025 with most holiday merchandise already landed and tariffs continuing to rise, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
Current inventories did not feel the brunt of higher tariffs effects, NRF noted, adding it expects tariffs on subsequent goods entering the country to more notably affect retail prices as stockpiles dwindle.
The latest tariffs, 25% on upholstered furniture regardless of country and the same rate on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, are set to take effect by mid-October and increase in January, for example. Then, a tariff increase on imports from China that was delayed by 90 days in August is scheduled to hit on November 10 unless a deal is reached or President Donald Trump decides on another delay, NRF pointed out.
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.32 million twenty-foot equivalent units, one 20-foot container or its equivalent, during August, down 2.9% from July’s 2.39 million TEU, 2025’s peak month, but up 0.1% year over year.
Ports haven’t yet reported figures for September, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.12 million TEU, down 6.8% year over year.
Port Tracker forecast October port volume to come in at 1.97 million TEU, down 12.3% year over year, with November at 1.75 million TEU, down 19.2%, and December at 1.72 million TEU, down 19.4%, making it the slowest month for landings since 1.62 million TEU in March 2023.
Although the falling monthly totals are related to tariffs, NRF indicated, the year-over-year percentage declines are due to this year’s early peak season and elevated imports in late 2024 driven by concerns about port strikes.
Port volume in 2025’s first half totaled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.7% year over year. The outlook for the full year is for 24.79 million TEU, down 2.9% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
The forecast for January 2026 volume is 1.87 million TEU, down 16.1% year over year, with February at 1.77 million TEU, down 12.8%.
“This year’s peak season has come and gone, largely due to retailers frontloading imports ahead of reciprocal tariffs taking effect,” Jonathon Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “New sectoral tariffs continue to be announced, but most retailers are well-stocked for the holiday season and doing as much as they can to shield their customers from the costs of tariffs for as long as they can.”
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett added, “Ongoing volatility in U.S. tariff policy is creating significant economic uncertainty, with trade volumes expected to see unpredictable shifts over the next four to six months. Many large companies preemptively imported goods to build up inventories, but as those stockpiles are depleted, the full inflationary impact of the tariffs will become apparent.”
Global Port Tracker, produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, includes historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
