The Conference Board reported an October slip in consumer confidence, and despite some measured improvement in how people feel about their current financial situations, the tracker said the decline in overall confidence could weigh on holiday spending.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index slipped by one point in October to 94.6 from an upwardly revised 95.6 in September, with 100 being the dividing line between positive and negative sentiments. The Present Situation Index, based on consumer assessment of current business and labor market conditions, gained 1.8 points to 129.3. The Expectations Index, based on consumer short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, slid 2.9 points to 71.5.
Preliminary data suggests that consumer holiday spending will soften this season compared to 2024, the Conference Board noted. Consumers surveyed expect to spend 3.9% less on gifts and 12% less on non-gift purchases. When asked what will drive their spending decisions over the holidays, consumers cited promotions most frequently and getting the most out of every dollar. Survey respondents said they might buy fewer goods if tariffs inflate prices. Although some consumers started their holiday shopping as early as the first quarter of 2025, the Conference Board maintained that the evidence of advance purchasing ahead of tariffs was sparse. Consumers intend to make more purchases between October and the end of the year, with November subject to the largest share of planned spending, the Conference Board asserted.
Plans to buy big-ticket items were little changed overall month over month, yet the intention to purchase big-ticket items has been picking up gradually after weakening earlier in this year. The Conference Board added, however, that purchasing intention varies significantly across different appliances and electronic goods. Consumer intentions to purchase more services ahead rose after a September pullback, driven by pet care, streaming and Internet spending, and motor vehicle services. Travel planning gained as well, matching an increase in vacation intentions
Confidence declined among consumers under 35 years of age and, to a lesser extent, among consumers over 55 years old, the Conference Board reported, but improved among consumers aged 35 to 54. Confidence fell for those earning less than $75,000 a year, and it improved for income groups making more than $75,000. The largest increase is among consumers earning more than $200,000 annually. Younger consumers and those earning over $75,000 have been the most optimistic. By partisan affiliation, confidence improved among Independents, declined among Democrats and slipped slightly among Republicans.
Consumer 12-month inflation expectations remain somewhat elevated, inching up to 5.9% in October from 5.8% in September. The share of consumers expecting interest rates to rise increased to 52.8% from 51.1% in September. At the same time 26.2% of consumers expected interest rates to decline, down from 26.9% in the month previous. Consumer outlook for stock prices remained strong, with 49.9% of consumers expecting prices to increase during the upcoming 12 months, unchanged from September, and 28.5% of consumers expecting stock prices to decline, up from 27.4% in the month previous.
Consumer views of their Family’s Current and Future Financial Situation improved in October, the Conference Board pointed out. Still, consumer views of current financial conditions remained below their average level in 2025. The share of consumers who think a recession is very likely over the next 12 months declined in October, even as the share of consumers who believe that the economy already is in recession increased for a third straight month.
“Consumer confidence moved sideways in October, only declining slightly from its upwardly revised September level,” said Stephanie Guichard, Conference Board senior economist, global indicators. “Changes to the individual subcomponents were also limited and largely cancelled each other out. The Present Situation Index regained some strength after September’s drop. Consumers’ view of current business conditions inched upward, while their appraisal of current job availability improved for the first time since December 2024. On the other hand, all components of the Expectations Index weakened somewhat. Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future job availability and future business conditions, while optimism about future income retreated slightly.”
Prices and inflation were leading subjects of consumer write-in responses to the survey, Guichard said.
“References to tariffs declined further this month but remained elevated,” she said. “Mentions of jobs and employment eased somewhat after picking up in September. The write-in comments remained mostly negative overall, but less so than in previous months. References to U.S. politics were up notably, with the ongoing government shutdown mentioned multiple times as a key concern.”
