Year-over-year declines in import cargo volume seen at major container ports across the United States in recent months should continue in 2026 under the effects of tariffs and ongoing uncertainty about U.S. trade policy, according to the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.07 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units – a 20-foot container or its equivalent – in October, a figure reached despite the Port of Charleston not yet reporting its data. The figure slipped 1.8% from September and 7.9% year over year.
Ports haven’t reported November numbers to this point, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.91 million TEU, down 11.6% year over year, with December at 1.86 million TEU, down 12.7%. November and December would look to be the slowest months of 2025 and come after a July peak of 2.39 million TEU. December would be the slowest volume month since 1.83 million TEU imported in June 2023. November and December are traditionally slow import months. However, the large year-over-year declines are partly related to port strikes in late 2024. In addition, many retailers imported cargo earlier than usual this year to avoid anticipated tariffs.
Port volume in 2025’s first half totaled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.7% year over year. Port Tracker projects full-year port volume at 25.2 million TEU, down 1.4% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
In January, Port Tracker forecasts cargo volume to generate its first month-to-month increase in half a year, coming in at two million TEU. Still, the two million figure would be down 10.3% from the month a year prior. Port Tracker pegs February volume at 1.86 million TEU, down 8.5% year over year, March at 1.79 million TEU, down 16.8%, and April at 1.97, down 10.9%.
The Trump administration has reduced duties on some food products recently, NRF pointed out, but the future of other tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act rests with a challenge currently under consideration by the U.S. Supreme Court. Even if the tariffs are struck down, NRF cautioned, the administration is likely to seek their reinstatement under other trade authorities.
The port-related developments come after NRF forecast record holiday sales of more than $1 trillion, up between 3.7% and 4.2% from the 2024 season.
“Stores are stocked up and ready for a record holiday season but there is still a great deal of uncertainty about what will happen in 2026 with trade policy,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “Regardless of what develops, retailers will adjust their supply chains accordingly and strive to ensure that consumers have affordable options when they shop.”
The effects of rising tariffs on global trade are unlikely to end soon, said Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett.
“We are seeing the results of the tariffs in weakening cargo demand going forward from the fourth quarter of this year and likely into the first half of next year,” Hackett said. “Container shipping rates are already declining on both coasts due to less need for cargo space for goods from both Asia and Europe.”
Global Port Tracker is produced for the NRF by Hackett Associates and provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
