Most U.S. consumers plan to celebrate Christmas this year, with holiday spending expectations largely steady, though a sizable share expect to pull back, according to Numerator’s 2025 Q4 Holiday Preview study.
As the holiday approaches, 54% of polled consumers said they intend to spend the same amount as last year on Christmas, while 33% said they would spend less and 13% said they would spend more.
The top product categories Christmas shoppers are targeting include gift cards, at 72%, followed by apparel, at 53%, toys or games, at 47%, home goods, at 36%, books, at 27%, food or beverages, at 27%, pet products, at 26%, accessories, at 25%, and spa or beauty products, at 25%. Baby Boomers were the generation most likely to opt for gift cards (75% of shoppers), whereas Gen Zers and Millennials were the least likely (63%).
Among the Numerator findings about Christmas celebrators:
- 82% typically begin planning for the holiday more than a month in advance, including 32% who begin more than three months in advance.
- 45% intend to do half of their seasonal shopping online and half in-store; 33% plan to do most or all online, and 22% plan to do most or all in-store.
- 49% expect to spend more than $400 on the holiday.
- 69% anticipate tariff-related impacts on their holiday shopping, including 26% who believe these impacts will change their shopping behavior significantly or entirely.
Gathering with family and friends is the foremost seasonal festivity Christmas celebrators have planned, at 75%, followed by giving gifts, at 67%, decorating the house, at 61%, cooking or baking at home, at 60%, and hosting others at home, at 31%.
