The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United States slipped 0.2% in June 2026 to 99.1 following a 0.1% increase in May.
The LEI is down by only 0.3% over the first half of 2026, the Conference Board pointed out, a much smaller rate of decline than its 1.1% contraction over the second half of 2025.
In effect, 100 is the dividing line between a positive and negative trend for the economy. The LEI incorporates factors including average weekly hours in manufacturing and initial claims for unemployment insurance; manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials and non-defense capital goods, excluding aircrafts; the Institute for Supply Management Index of New Orders; and building permits for new private housing units; the S&P 500 Index of Stock; the Leading Credit Index; the interest rate spread defined as 10-year U.S. treasury bonds less federal funds rate; and average consumer expectations for business conditions
“In June, the Leading Economic Index for the U.S. declined and partially reversed gains registered in May and April,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Conference Board senior manager, business cycle indicators. “While some components of the LEI were little changed, the largest positive contribution from the yield spread, followed by marginal positive input from the remaining financial components, were not enough to offset weak consumer expectations and a drop in building permits across most of its categories. Despite the recent decline, the LEI’s six- and 12-month growth rates, while negative, were stable. Consumer spending is weakening, but strong business investment related to AI is expected to support economic activity while inflation continues to improve. The Conference Board raised its forecast from 1.8% to 1.9% year over year GDP growth for 2026.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index for the U.S — which takes in payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production — increased by 0.2% in June 2026 to 114.6 after a similar increase of 0.2% in May. The CEI expanded by 0.4% in the first half of 2026, slightly more than the 0.3% growth rate over the previous six months. All components of the CEI made positive contributions in June, as the economy stayed above the CEI 100 reading that separates economic growth from recession.
