December retail sales saw 4.1% year-over-year growth, an increase consistent with predictions for a record 2025 holiday season, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor.
The result moves total 2025 holiday season sales in line with the National Retail Federation forecast for record spending as announced in November. Based on Retail Monitor data, 2025 sales from November 1 through December 31 grew 4.1%. NRF forecast holiday season sales would increase between 3.7% and 4.2% compared to the same period in 2024 to just more than $1 trillion. The forecast was based on United States Census Bureau data, but the bureau has not yet released its December retail sales results, NRF noted.
Total retail sales advanced 1.26% seasonally adjusted month over month and 3.54% unadjusted year over year in December, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with a gain of 0.12% month over month and 4.53% year over year in November. The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales, which excludes restaurants in addition to auto dealers and gas stations, increased 1.6% month over month in December and 3.58% year over year. The December results compare with a decrease of 0.04% month over month and an increase of 4.66% year over year in November.
A late Thanksgiving pushed Cyber Monday sales into December in 2025, NRF pointed out. December’s numbers drove total 2025 sales as calculated by the Retail Monitor to an increase of 4.93% over 2024 and core sales to a year-over-year increase of 5.08%.
By channel, Retail Monitor put results at:
- General merchandise stores up 2.9% month over month seasonally adjusted and 3.42% year over year unadjusted.
- Furniture and home furnishings stores up 0.33% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 0.82% year over year unadjusted.
- Building and garden supply stores up 1.11% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 5.3% year over year unadjusted.
- Electronics and appliance stores up 2.28% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 0.09% year over year unadjusted.
- Health and personal care stores up 1.92% month over month seasonally adjusted and 2.5% year over year unadjusted.
- Grocery and beverage stores up 0.33% month over month seasonally adjusted and 2.85% year over year unadjusted.
- Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores up 3.52% month over month seasonally adjusted and 5.16% year over year unadjusted.
- Clothing and accessories stores up 2.05% month over month seasonally adjusted and 6.11% year over year unadjusted.
- Digital products such as electronic books and games up 0.98% month over month seasonally adjusted and 3.6% year over year unadjusted.
“December Retail Monitor data saw a sharp surge in growth as consumers continued prioritizing holiday spending on family and friends,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Continued economic momentum helped land 2025 holiday sales near the top of NRF’s forecast, reaffirming that consumers remain on solid footing.”
Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions that does not need to be revised monthly or annually.
