Core retail sales slipped slightly month-to-month in November as Cyber Monday slid into December this year, but sales advanced year-over-year, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor released by the National Retail Federation.
Total retail sales, excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations, gained 0.12% seasonally adjusted month over month and 4.53% unadjusted year over year in November, Retail Monitor determined. The increase compares with growth of 0.6% month over month and 5% year over year in October.
The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales, excluding restaurants in addition to auto dealers and gas stations, was down 0.04% month over month in November but up 4.66% year over year. The figures compared with October growth of 0.6% month over month and 4.89% year over year.
Total retail sales were up 5.06% year over year for the first 11 months of 2025 as core sales gained 5.22%.
NRF has forecast that 2025 holiday sales from November 1 through December 31 would grow between 3.7% and 4.2% versus the 2024 period to just over $1 trillion. It predicted that retail sales for the entire year would advance between 2.7% and 3.7% from 2024 to as much as $5.48 trillion.
In results by channel, Retail Monitor reported:
- General merchandise stores were down 0.73% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 3.1% year over year unadjusted.
- Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 0.01% month over month seasonally adjusted and 0.53% year over year unadjusted.
- Building and garden supply stores were down 1.74% month over month seasonally adjusted and 9.38% year over year unadjusted.
- Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.74% month over month seasonally adjusted and 3.89% year over year unadjusted.
- Health and personal care stores were down 0.19% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 1.31% year over year unadjusted.
- Electronics and appliance stores were down 2.94% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 1.01% year over year unadjusted.
- Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were up 0.28% month over month seasonally adjusted and 8.96% year over year unadjusted.
- Clothing and accessories stores were down 0.04% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 8.16% year over year unadjusted.
- Digital products such as electronic books and games were down 0.37% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 14.81% year over year unadjusted.
“Retail sales showed healthy year-over-year gains in November, while month-over-month data was largely flat,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Shoppers looking for online deals may have held back a bit until Cyber Monday, which landed in December due to a late Thanksgiving, likely shifting some spending. Consumers are focusing on value and spending carefully during the holiday period, and retailers are offering products at competitive prices to fit every budget. We remain confident in our 2025 holiday forecast as well as our retail sales projections for the full year.”
Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need monthly or annual revision.
