A report from the Kearney Consumer Institute suggests brands of the future will be competing for consumers who can’t keep up with the expanding choice, convenience and personalization offered in a complex shopping arena.
The “Tyranny of Too Much” report points out that consumers are faced with a tsunami of options, inputs, tasks and interactions that creates what KCI characterizes as a “compounding effect” that often transfers additional work on to consumers rather than making their lives easier.
Given the complexity of the shopper circumstances, as they are evolving, trust becomes a more significant issue. According to KCI, up to $20 trillion in consumer spending will become contestable in 2036 as consumers become disengaged and brand switching accelerates. The companies that can best address consumer concerns and provide the least stressful route to purchase have an opportunity to win a portion of that contestable spending.
“With near-unlimited access to information, some real and some not, people, some real and some not, and product claims, some real and some not, who will consumers trust?” KCI lead and report principle author Katie Thomas observed. “The old model of trust was based on institutions and defined by a set of experts, media, and leading brands. Now and in the future, with consumers having access to more self-acquired information, trust will shift from brands and sources to outcomes and performance. It’s no surprise that we’re seeing so many ‘broken trust’-led brand boycotts.”
The survey included 21,500 consumers across 20 countries who are dealing with social interactions, including shopping, that have increasingly moved from the personal to the synthetic. The dynamic is unlikely to reverse, so it’s probable that, whatever the complications of navigating the endless aisle and contending with a constant barrage of deals today, shopping will be even trickier in 2036.
“In significant ways, consumers will not know how to live in the world they have helped create,” Thomas said. “By 2036, demographic change, macroeconomics and policy, and technology will shape who holds spending power, how much flexibility consumers have and how willing they are to reconsider established habits.”
KCI said major results drawn from the survey include:
- $20 trillion of consumer spending will be challenged by trust failures.
- Trust is shifting from a source-based to outcome-based model dependent on consistent performance.
- 86% of consumers agree they care more about whether a brand delivers on its proposition than they do about the brand itself.
As such, consumers are questioning what brands represent in a marketplace in which things aren’t what they seem, skepticism of any authority grows, and fake reports and images are becoming harder to spot.
When it comes to engagement opportunities, AI will hand consumers back a certain number of moments in the day spent on basic tasks, and that will cause a shift from a chronological to the contextual time broken into short and long periods, shaped by cognitive load and often reclaimed by more work, media or life-management activities.
Although technology such as AI can help cut through some of the clutter, artificial intelligence does not yet provide an ideal solution of the compounding effect. For the report, KCI tested multiple platforms, the company maintained, and found that artificial intelligence could answer more objective, straightforward questions reasonably well, but its ability to answer questions that harbor deeper emotional significance dropped materially. Kearney created a custom test pitting an AI model against real consumer responses. Accuracy peaked at about 60%, then fell sharply on emotional and identity-driven questions, the company asserted, adding that 80% of consumers believe only people can provide genuine empathy and belonging.
Still, Kearney noted consumers are turning to AI as they would to a person for advice, as a sounding board and to feel a sense of connection, even though they know that they aren’t engaged with a real person. In the polling, 51% of Gen Zers acknowledged turning to AI for companionship, with 44% of Millennials doing so as well. The proportion falls to 32% for Gen Xers and 19% for Baby Boomers.
At a time when consumers might be feeling a bit overwhelmed, Kearney stated that 70% of Gen Zers said they had turned to AI for advice on a personal matter compared with 64% of Millennials, 49% of Gen Xers and 32% of Boomers.
“Automation and changing norms may free up time, but that time is quickly reabsorbed or redirected,” noted Greg Portell, Kearney partner and global markets lead. “The result is a more fragmented, multitasking-driven consumer experience. From product discovery and media consumption to the growing desire for rest, these shifts are reshaping how people spend their time and how brands earn their attention.”
