Retailers accelerated imports ahead of July tariff changes, creating an early peak shipping season that is expected to ease to lower volumes through the fall, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
Ports have not yet reported final July numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.21 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units, or TEU, down 7.6% year over year. The August forecast calls for 2.22 million TEU, down 4.2%. Thereafter, imports are expected to decline steadily through the fall, although volumes are projected to remain above 2025 levels.
Tariffs continue to impact the import outlook. The temporary 10% Section 122 global tariffs that took effect in February expired on July 23, but new Section 301 tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% now apply to imports from dozens of economies, countries, and the European Union. Additional country-specific duties continue to increase effective tariff rates on some imports.
In June, U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker reported handling 2.23 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units, defined as one 20-foot container or its equivalent, up 13.2% from the year-previous period but down 0.7% from May. The year-over-year increase came against a weaker comparison period, as imports declined sharply in June 2025 following earlier tariff actions.
In all, imports for the first half of 2026 totaled 12.7 million TEU, up 1.1% from the period in 2025.
Port Tracker forecasts September at 2.16 million TEU, up 2.8% year over year, October at 2.13 million TEU, up 2.7%, and November at 2.03 million TEU, up 0.3%. Then, December picks up a bit with the outlook for 2.06 million TEU, up 2.5% from the 2025 month.
As the year winds down, Port Tracker forecasts 2026 total imports to come in at 25.5 million TEU, up 0.1% from last year. In 2025, imports totaled 25.4 million TEU, down 0.3% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
“We had an early peak season this year as retailers brought in merchandise ahead of tariff changes in late July and responded to other uncertainties in the supply chain like the ongoing disruption brought by the conflict in Iran,” NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said. “One round of tariffs has been replaced with another, but retailers will be well stocked for the coming holiday season. Retailers know how to adapt to shifting situations and are well prepared to meet consumers’ demand for affordability and choice.”
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett added, “Consumers might have been expected to become more cautious as cost-of-living pressures persist. Even so, consumer spending has remained resilient despite persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
