The outlook for January import volume at major container ports in the United States shows the first increase in six months, but it also indicates that goods movement will remain down year over year until spring, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
In November, the latest month for which final data is available, NRF noted, U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.02 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units, the volume handled by a 20-foot container, down 2.3% from October and 6.5% year over year.
Although ports have not yet reported December numbers, Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.99 million TEU, down 6.6% year over year. November and December are traditionally slow, but Port Tracker indicated that the declines in 2024 were partly due to concerns about strikes at U.S. harbor facilities. Also, many retailers imported cargo earlier than usual in 2025 to avoid tariffs.
With a forecast of 2.11 million TEU, Port Tracker pegged January to see the first month-over-month increase since July 2025 in part because retailers will be moving goods prior to February’s Lunar New Year holiday in Asia, but it also anticipated a 5.3% decline year over year. Port Tracker forecasts February at 1.94 million TEU, down 4.6% from the year previous; March at 1.88 million TEU, down 12.4%; and April at 2.03 million TEU, down 8.1%. It forecast May to reach 2.07 million TEU, up 6.2% and marking the first year-over-year gain since last August.
The first half of 2025 saw volume of 12.53 million TEU, up 3.7% year over year, Global Track maintained, as it forecast 25.4 million TEU for the full year, down 0.4% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
“There should be a brief bump in imports this month ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, but we’re otherwise headed into the post-holiday shipping lull that comes each year,” NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said in announcing the port figures. “Retailers had a busy holiday season and are assessing what’s ahead in 2026 so they can keep supply chains running smoothly to ensure consumers can find the products they want at prices they can afford. Retailers are hoping for more stability and certainty, especially regarding tariffs and trade policy, in 2026 to help ensure better supply chain operations to meet consumer needs.”
After being hit by uncertainty from increased U.S. tariffs in 2025, trade policy will continue to have a pronounced effect on import volumes, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said.
“As 2026 begins, we see a world increasingly focused on protecting domestic industries and addressing perceived trade imbalances,” he said. “This approach has raised questions about the future of free trade and international economic cooperation.”
Global Port Tracker, produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast, New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
