Retailers are seeing shoplifting and merchandise theft incidents stabilize, but rising fraud and other forms of external theft point to an evolving retail crime landscape, according to a report released by the National Retail Federation and the Loss Prevention Research Council and sponsored by Sensormatic Solutions.
Citing the continued evolution of organized retail crime, NRF is urging the U.S. Senate to pass the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act after its approval by the U.S. House of Representatives. NRF said the legislation would strengthen federal coordination and provide state and local law enforcement with additional tools to identify and investigate cross-jurisdictional and transnational retail crime groups.
The Impact of Theft & Violence 2026 report found that retailers experienced a 12.4% decrease in shoplifting incidents and an 8.1% decline in retail merchandise theft in 2025 versus 2024, yet other kinds of external theft, fraud and scams increased over the same period. The findings highlight how organized retail criminals are increasingly exploiting both physical and digital retail environments, NRF stated.
The report is based on a survey of senior loss prevention and security executives in retailing conducted from February to April 2026, focused on how retailers continue to manage an evolving landscape of theft, violence and fraud. Individual offenders and organized retail crime groups continue to adapt, employing increasingly sophisticated tactics across retail channels. As such, retailers, law enforcement and legislators need to continue building stronger collaborations against expanding criminal behavior and cross-jurisdictional activity, NRF asserted.
The decline in shoplifting and merchandise theft incidents resulted in part from retailer efforts to evaluate, implement and refine security measures designed to deter theft and reduce losses, NRF maintained. Strategies including the use of enhanced interior and exterior security systems, and store- and employee-specific safety protocols have contributed to improvement, the organization observed. Retailers have also bolstered their capabilities in addressing loss patterns and assessing the effectiveness of various security measures in addressing different types of theft.
However, NRF pointed out, the report demonstrates a concerning shift as criminals take their activities beyond traditional shoplifting and to engaging sophisticated external theft schemes. Retailers responding to the survey reported higher rates of repeat offenders (50%), ORC-related incidents (40%), and walkout or pushout theft (37%). Fraud is rising as well, with phone scams (69%), loyalty fraud (51%), and gift card theft or fraud (42%) increasing.
Violence remains a significant concern for retailers, with increases in homelessness-related disruptions and guest-related incidents. Retailers are strengthening proactive workplace violence prevention efforts by investing in management training (72%), employee training (65%), and risk-intelligence technologies (61%), among other measures designed to enhance safety for employees and customers.
Consistent with prior years, reporting of store-related theft incidents to law enforcement remained low, with 63% of retailers reporting fewer than half of such incidents. Survey respondents cited several factors for not reporting, including low dollar losses or not meeting felony thresholds (60%), as well as concerns about lack of law enforcement response and follow-through (54%).
“After years of rising in-store theft, retailers are beginning to see levels stabilize, driven by investments in technology and employee training to strengthen store security and improve response to these crimes,” NRF vice president for asset protection and retail operations David Johnston said in announcing the report findings. “However, significant challenges remain as organized criminals continue to exploit vulnerabilities throughout the retail environment, as seen in the rise of various fraud schemes and thefts, including cargo theft, phone scams and gift card fraud.”
University of Florida research scientist and Loss Prevention Research Council executive director Read Hayes, Ph.D., noted, “Trusted research is essential to understanding these threats and how they continue to evolve. As these risks shift and shoplifting rates stabilize, the retail industry must confront the growing challenges of fraud and external theft.”
