After a peak this summer that approached a record, import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports looks to steadily decline through year’s end amid rising tariffs, according to the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
Ports in the United States covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.36 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units, one 20-foot container or its equivalent during July, with numbers for New York/New Jersey, Port Everglades and Miami estimated because they have not yet reported their volume data. The figure was 20.1% higher than June volume as retailers brought in merchandise ahead of tariffs set to take effect in August, and it was up 1.8% for the month year over year. The volume would make July 2025 the second-busiest month on record, topped only by 2.4 million TEU in May 2022.
Ports have not yet reported August numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.28 million TEU, down 1.7% year over year but higher than that 2.2 million TEU expected before the announcements about new India tariffs and postponement of higher China duties.
Port Tracker forecast September at 2.12 million TEU, down 6.8% year over year, October at 1.95 million TEU, down 13.2%, and November at 1.74 million TEU, down 19.7%. The December forecast is for at 1.7 million TEU, down 20.1% year over year, which would be the slowest volume month since 1.62 million TEU in March 2023.
Although the falling monthly totals are related to tariffs, according to Port Tracker, the year-over-year percentage declines are attributed to this year’s early peak season and concern about port strikes in late 2024 that promoted changes in shipment scheduling.
Port volume in the first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.6% year over year. The volume forecast for the full year is 24.7 million TEU, down 3.4% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024. Then, the January 2026 forecast if for 1.8 million TEU, down 19.1% year over year.
Although what the White House characterizes as reciprocal tariffs on a number of countries took effect in early August, a Federal appeals court later ruled against President Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose the tariffs. The appeals court left them in place as the ruling goes to the Supreme Court. In addition, Trump delayed an increase on China tariffs by 90 days to November 10 so trade negotiations could continue. Trump also announced an additional 25% tariff on India that took effect near the end of August, bringing the tariff rate for India goods to 50%.
“We have seen the implementation of reciprocal tariffs across the globe, with a number of key trading partners being subjected to tariffs higher than the earlier 10% tariffs,” Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “We also continue to see more and more sectoral tariffs impacting a wider scope of products. Retailers have stocked up as much as they can ahead of tariff increases, but the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy is making it impossible to make the long-term plans that are critical to future business success. These tariffs and disruptions to the supply chain are adding costs that will ultimately lead to higher prices for American consumers.”
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett added, “Tariffs have had a significant impact on trade. The trade outlook for the final months of the year is not optimistic.”
Global Port Tracker, produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast, New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
