The Global Port Tracker report, released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, stated that import cargo volume at major container ports is likely to rebound after a double-digit drop in late spring through May. It is forecast to fall again after previously paused tariffs proposed by the Trump Administration take effect.
Ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.95 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units, one 20-foot container or its equivalent, during May, the latest month for which final data is available, down 11.8% from April and down 6.4% year over year. May’s was the first year-over-year port volume decline since September 2023 and the lowest volume since 1.93 million TEU in May 2024.
Ports haven’t reported June volume yet, but Port Tracker projects the month to come in at 2.06 million TEU, up 5.9% from May and down 3.7% year over year. The July forecast is for at 2.36 million TEU, up 2.1% year over year; August at 2.08 million TEU, down 10.4% year over year; and September at 1.82 million TEU, down 19.9% year over year for the lowest monthly total since 1.87 million TEU in December 2023, Port Tracker noted. It forecasts October volume to total 1.81 million TEU, down 19.2% year over year; and November volume to total 1.7 million TEU, down 21.3% year over year, for the lowest total since 1.78 million TEU in April 2023.
Although tariffs were a cause of the falling projected aggregate totals in August through November, the large year-over-year projected percentage import declines also reflect comparisons to elevated late 2024 import levels reflecting a response to possible East Coast and Gulf Coast labor actions pending at the time, according to the Global Port Tracker report.
The current forecast would bring port volume in the first half of 2025 to 12.63 million TEU, up 4.5% year-over-year, better than the 12.54 million TEU forecast last month but still below the 12.78 million TEU predicted before the tariffs announcement in April.
President Trump has signed an executive order delaying reciprocal tariffs until August 1, and he also announced tariffs of up to 40% on more than a dozen countries. The president has indicated he will send additional communications to other countries. Additionally, questions remain about what will happen with tariffs on China in August, despite the Trump administration’s indication of a recently inked trade deal between China and the U.S.
“The tariff situation remains highly fluid and retailers are working hard to stock up for the holiday season before the various tariffs that have been announced and paused actually take effect,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold. Retailers have brought in as much merchandise as possible ahead of the reciprocal tariffs taking effect, and the latest extension to August 1 is greatly appreciated. Nonetheless, uncertainty over tariffs makes it increasingly difficult for retailers to plan, especially small businesses that have no capacity to absorb tariffs. Tariffs are paid by U.S. companies, not foreign countries or businesses, and ultimately drive up prices for American families while impacting the availability of products. It is vital for the administration to finalize negotiations with our trading partners and provide stability and certainty for U.S. retailers.”
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett added, “A flurry of tariff-related announcements from the Trump administration has only served to further increase supply chain uncertainty. The global supply chain functions best in a trade environment that is smooth and predictable. Instead, it has been forced to contend with erratic policies and geopolitical volatility.”
Global Port Tracker, produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
