In a reading that may have implications for how consumers spend post-holidays, The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index slipped 3.8 points in December to 89.1, from 92.9 in November, with 100 as the break-even point between positive and negative sentiment.
The figures include an upward revision to November’s reading because responses collected after the federal government shutdown, which ran from October 1 to November 12, were more positive than those collected during the impasse, the Conference Board reported.
The Present Situation Index, based on consumer assessment of current business and labor market conditions, fell 9.5 points to 116.8 in December. The Expectations Index, focused on consumer short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, held at 70.7.
The Present Situation Index declined as net views on current business conditions fell into negative territory for the first time since September 2024, the Conference Board noted, a month that included a labor market scare and deadly hurricanes.
In its December consumer confidence survey, the Conference Board found 18.7% of consumers considered business conditions to be good, down from 21% in November. Some 19.1% said business conditions were bad, up from 15.8% in the prior month. As to the labor market, 26.7% of consumers polled in December said jobs were plentiful, down from 28.2% in November, and 20.8% said jobs were hard to get, up from 20.1% in the month earlier.
When asked about their expectations for the period six months out, 18% of consumers said they anticipated business conditions to improve, down from 18.1% in November, while 21.8% expected business conditions to worsen, down from 25.8%. Then, 16.5% of consumers expected the economy to produce more jobs in the first half of 2026, unchanged from November, while 27.4% anticipated fewer jobs, up from 26.8%.
Across demographic groups, based on a six-month moving average, confidence declined in December, although consumers under 35 remained more confident than those older. By income, confidence on a six-month basis slid for almost all brackets, except among those earning less than $15,000 annually and those earning more than $125,000.
Consumer views on Family’s Current Financial Situation tumbled into negative territory for the first time in almost four years, the Conference Board maintained. However, expectations for Family’s Future Financial Situation were the most positive since January, 2025. Meanwhile, the share of consumers who believe a U.S. recession is not likely over the next 12 months edged up to about one-fifth of respondents, while those saying a recession is very likely continued to decline, the Conference Board reported.
Among consumers who said “yes” to buying big-ticket items in the six months ahead, the share edged up in December in the Conference Board survey. However, the number of those saying “no” increased, and the number saying “maybe” declined. Homebuying expectations declined, while plans to buy household appliances dipped. However, future spending plans for smartphones, tablets and digital cameras continued to trend upward on the six-month moving average basis.
On balance, the Conference Board stated, consumer spending trends through the 2025 holiday period favored low-cost indulgences and necessary services over expensive, highly discretionary spending.
“Despite an upward revision in November related to the end of the shutdown, consumer confidence fell again in December,” said Dana Peterson, Conference Board chief economist, adding the reading remains well below the January 2025 peak. “Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to be led by references to prices and inflation, tariffs and trade, and politics. However, December saw increases in mentions of immigration, war and topics related to personal finances, including interest rates, taxes and income, banks and insurance. The responses continued to skew pessimistic but less so than in November, potentially due to fewer negative comments about prices and inflation, politics, as well as a rebound in positive responses about interest rates. Notably, the Federal Reserve Board cut monetary policy rates on December 10 for a third time in 2025, which landed in the second half of the survey sample interval.”
