Although uncertainty about the economy has hovered over the holiday season, the outlook for 2026 is positive with projected gains in services, including retail, and manufacturing, an Institute for Supply Management survey suggested,
In polling purchasing and supply management executives across the United States, ISM found that expectations for growth are widespread across industry channels. Respondents expected revenue increases in 16 of 18 services as well as 16 of 18 manufacturing industries as the economy gain some traction.
In the services sector, 54% of respondents expected their 2026 revenues to gain from 2025, up 4.6% versus the 4.2% increase reported for 2025.
Services sector revenue gains look likely in the Real Estate, Rental and Leasing; Information; Professional, Scientific and Technical Services; Wholesale Trade; Health Care and Social Assistance; Accommodation and Food Services; Other Services; Finance and Insurance; Arts, Entertainment and Recreation; Retail Trade; Public Administration; Transportation and Warehousing; Utilities; Mining; Construction, and Educational Services segments.
“Services supply executives report operating at 90.2% of normal capacity, more than the 86.5% reported in May 2025,” said Steve Miller, chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee. “They are optimistic about the first half of 2026 and expect growth to slightly decline in the second half, with a projected increase in capital investment. They forecast that their capacity to produce products and provide services will rise by 2.1% during 2026, and capital expenditures will increase by 2.5%. Services Business Survey Panel members also predict their overall employment will increase by 2.5% during 2026.”
In the manufacturing sector, 56% of survey respondents expected revenues to be higher in 2026 versus 2025, with overall revenues up 4.4% versus the 2.5% increase reported for 2025.
In the manufacturing sector, revenue increases seemed likely in the Food, Beverage and Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer and Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Petroleum and Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Primary Metals; Machinery; Paper Products; Furniture and Related Products; Wood Products; Textile Mills; Plastics and Rubber Products; and Electrical Equipment, and Appliances and Components segments.
Susan Spence, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said, “Manufacturing’s purchasing and supply executives expect to see overall growth in 2026. They are optimistic about overall business prospects for the first half of 2026 and more excited about faster growth in the second half. According to the ISM PMI Reports, manufacturing was in contraction for the ninth month in a row in November. Respondents continue to expect raw materials pricing pressure in 2026 and see first-half 2025 profit margins improving over the second half of 2025. Manufacturers also predict growth in exports while imports stay the same in 2026.”
