Market research and insight company Circana reported that the trend of diminishing demand at retail appeared mid-year and continues, revealing shifts in consumer spending behavior spanning the retail marketplace.
Retail sales revenue in the United States was flat across discretionary general merchandise, retail food and beverage and non-edible consumer packaged goods (CPG) during the five weeks ending October 4, 2025, compared to the same time in 2024, Circana reported, noting unit demand declined year over year by 2%. Dollar sales gains for the month came from retail food and beverage (up 1%), and unit sales were down across all retail segments, according to Circana.
“We are in a period of ‘invisible inflation,’ said Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry advisor for Circana. “It appears, on the surface, as though retail sales have not realized the impact of inflation… In reality, consumers are pulling back on the amount of product they are buying, allowing them to spend the same overall amount even though what they are buying costs more. Consumers no longer have the same purchasing power they had a year ago.”
The latest demand shifts are evident even at the macro level, and the financial strain on consumers is becoming more evident, Cohen said. Discretionary general merchandise retail dollar sales declined 3%, and unit demand fell 6%, compared to the same period a year ago, according to Circana. Retail food and beverage sales revenue was up 1%, and unit sales were down 1%. Non-edible consumer packaged goods dollars were down 1%, while unit sales declined 4%, the market researcher noted.
“Consumer prioritization means demand and spending shifts will be fickle in their impact, making it important to pay attention to more than just the big retail picture. Successful high-end product launches and promotional timing can alter sales at a product or category level, and create an inconsistent macro view,” Cohen said. “As marketers plan for the upcoming holiday shopping season and 2026, the keys to growth will be to emphasize the relevance of a product and accelerate innovation. Give the consumer a reason to prioritize their spending in your favor.”
