Consumers demonstrated concern about what’s coming during the next few months as The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined by 3.6 points in September to 94.2, down from 97.8 in August.
Purchasing plans for homes jumped to a four-month high in September, the Conference Board indicated. Consumers’ plans to buy big-ticket items were little changed overall. Consumers’ intentions to purchase automobiles and more services deteriorated.
Consumer views on Family’s Current and Future Financial Situation weakened in September. The view consumers have on their current financial situations recorded the largest one-month drop since the Conference Board started to collect the family data in July 2022, the organization reported. The share of consumers thinking that a recession is very likely during the next 12 months rose slightly in September to the highest level since May. In addition, more consumers thought the economy is already in recession, according to the Conference Board.
In demographic terms, confidence rose for consumers under 35 years old and declined for those over 35. By income, confidence remained above its April low for all consumer cohorts except for households earning between $25,000 and $35,000 and those earning above $200,000. By partisan affiliation, confidence improved slightly among Republicans and Democrats and dropped substantially among Independents.
In September, consumers’ outlook on stock prices improved slightly. The share of consumers expecting stock prices to increase during the next 12 months has been unchanged at 48.9% since August and July. Meanwhile, 27.6% of consumers expected stock prices to decrease during the next 12 months, down from 30.2% in August. The share of consumers expecting interest rates to rise ticked down to 51.9% from 52.1% in August, and 25.6% consumers expected interest rates to decline, up from 23.6% in August.
In looking at the present situation, 19.5% of consumers said business conditions were good, down from 21.8% in August, while 15.4% said business conditions were bad, up from 14.6%. As for the labor market, 26.9% of consumers said jobs were plentiful, down from 30.2% in August, and 19.1% of consumers said jobs were hard to get, unchanged from the month prior.
When viewing expectations six months out, 18.7% of consumers said they expect business conditions to improve, down from 20.2% in August, while 22.3% expected business conditions to worsen, down from 23.5%. Then, 16.1% of consumers expect more jobs to be available in six months, down from 17.9% in August, and 25.6% anticipated fewer jobs, down slightly from 25.9%.
Income prospects weren’t as optimistic in September, with 17.6% of consumers expecting their incomes to increase, down from 18.8% in August, while 11.7% expected their income to decrease, down from 13.3%.
“Consumer confidence weakened in September, declining to the lowest level since April 2025,” said Stephanie Guichard, Conference Board senior economist, global indicators. “The present-situation component registered its largest drop in a year. Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was much less positive than in recent months, while their appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multiyear low. This is consistent with the decline in job openings. Expectations also weakened in September but to a lesser extent. Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future job availability and future business conditions but optimism about future income increased, mitigating the overall decline in the Expectations Index.”
Regarding consumer write-in responses, Guichard said, “references to prices and inflation rose in September, regaining its top position as the main topic influencing consumers’ views of the economy. References to tariffs declined this month but remained elevated and continued to be associated with concerns about higher prices. Nonetheless, consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations inched down, to 5.8% in September from 6.1% in August. This is still notably above 5%, the level at the end of 2024.”
