The American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) indicates overall customer satisfaction in the United States has dropped for three consecutive quarters, yet the organization signals consumer spending should rise by 2.8% in this year’s third quarter.
In analyzing the index, ASCI suggested businesses are using their power over pricing to avoid adjusting policies to better serve consumers.
As of 2025’s second quarter, the national ACSI score dropped 0.1% to 76.9 on a scale of 0 to 100, which is roughly the same level it was 12 years ago. The customer satisfaction trajectory then pointed to a much higher level, although not without some volatility, according to the ACSI reading.
In competitive markets, consumers reward sellers for treating their customers well and punish them when they treat them poorly, but ACSI asserted that relevant economic data shows that businesses have not lived up to expectations. Despite stagnant or lower customer satisfaction, net profit margins have increased by 3% to 4% over the past decade to about 11% earlier this year. At the same time, consumer prices have risen more than producer prices, according to ACSI.
ACSI stated its index is a companion to GDP in that it measures quality relative to price of economic output, as determined by the users of that output. GDP measures quantity times price of economic output. For markets to function well within the economy, the two should move in the same direction, not necessarily over all short-term periods, but over the medium and long term, according to ACSI. Declining or stagnant customer satisfaction while seller profit grows occurs when buyers lose power relative to sellers. In competitive markets, sellers are supposed to make profits by satisfying their customers, not at the expense of their customers, ACSI contends.
Because ACSI weakened in the 2025 first quarter, the demand curve should have shifted downward and consumer spending, which represents about 70% of GDP, should have declined. However, when sellers have strong pricing power, the reverse may occur if households have the means to spend. The ACSI forecast, which controls for changes in household income, correctly predicted an increase in consumer spending in the second quarter, despite lower customer satisfaction in Q1. Both consumer spending and GDP increased in Q2, ACSI pointed out, which helped avert a recession.
As for predicting the third quarter, an increase in household income might compensate for Q2’s weakening customer satisfaction, but a proper alignment of business profits and consumer outcomes may not happen, according to ACSI. ACSI maintained excess pricing power and constrained markets typically lead to less innovation, lower productivity and smaller consumer surplus. Long-term economic health requires properly functioning markets, low consumer switching cost and less business pricing power, ACSI said, adding strong competition is a critical ingredient leading to high levels of innovation, productivity, and efficient allocation of resources.
