Imports at major container ports in the United States are likely to remain below last year’s levels for the first half of 2026 amid ongoing tariff uncertainty, but it is too soon to gauge the impact of the conflict in Iran, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.08 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs), one 20-foot container or its equivalent, in January, although the Ports of New York/New Jersey and Miami had not yet reported their data. The figure was up 3.8% from December but down 6.4% year over year.
Although ports have not yet reported February numbers, Global Port Tracker projected February at 2.01 million TEU, down 1.3% year over year. It forecast March at 1.91 million TEU, down 11.2% year over year; April at 2.03 million TEU, down 8.1%; May at 2.09 million TEU, up 7%; June at 2.1 million TEU, up 6.8%; and July at 2.2 million TEU, down 8%.
In total, numbers would bring the first half of this year to 12.21 million TEU, down 2.5% from 12.53 million TEU in the 2025 period. The May and June year-over-year increases are largely due to a sharp drop-off in imports during those months last year, following the administration’s announcement of the so-called liberation day tariffs in April 2025, NRF pointed out.
Imports for 2025 totaled 25.4 million TEU, down 0.3% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
“The Supreme Court has struck down IEEPA tariffs, but other tariffs have already been announced and others will be coming, so uncertainty continues for retailers,” NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said in announcing the port figures. “The need for clear and predictable trade policy remains, and long-term planning continues to be difficult for merchants and other businesses. While we agree with holding our trading partners accountable and seeking more domestic manufacturing opportunities, it is important to understand that tariffs drive up costs for businesses and prices for consumers. They should be used strategically. In addition to tariffs, we are closely watching the situation in Iran and the potential impact it will have on retail supply chains.”
As regards the Iran conflict, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett noted: “The immediate impact on containerized traffic to the United States is not likely to be substantial since little U.S.-bound container cargo is sourced from the region. While it is too early to measure in the monthly data, increasing oil and gasoline prices will inevitably drive structural inflation if the conflict persists. That, in turn, could squeeze consumer discretionary spending and U.S. manufacturing, and ultimately drive down import volumes in the longer term.”
Global Port Tracker, produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
