Back-to-school season may give Target a chance to complete a traffic turnaround, according to Placer.ai, as overall retail foot traffic in early 2025 demonstrated modest growth.
This suggests that traditional back-to-school categories such as sportswear and footwear will remain strong, but that home furnishings, off-price and thrift stores may have opportunities in the selling period. They have been showing notable visit strength recently.
Store traffic gains across retail in April, up 2.3%, and May, up 1.3% year-over-year, bode well for the back-to-school selling season, Placer.ai maintained. Still, some regional disparities in store visits may occur in 2025, the traffic tracker noted. Retail visits in Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Utah and Montana were up 3% to 5.1% in May versus the month the year before. However, Ohio, New York, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia saw year-over-year traffic declines in May 2025, down 0.7% to 0.3%, indicating that back-to-school retail visits may be slightly weaker in those states.
Still, it’s fair to say that the unusual weather in May of this year may have played a role in weaker traffic.
In a specific analysis, Placer.ai noted that Target traffic volume has been rebounding lately. The company’s year-over-year visit gap has narrowed from a 9.1% decline in February to a 1.7% decrease in May. As such, Placer.ai noted, trends suggest Target has recovery momentum heading into August, typically the retailer’s second-busiest month of the year. August traffic consistently outperforms Target’s broader annual trends, the market researcher pointed out. It added that August is Target’s second-busiest month of the year, after December. Target’s August audience tends to extend beyond families, at 43.2%, and include a single shopper segment, at 20.4% which is higher than its annual reading, suggesting opportunities to capture Gen Z and Millennial consumers with targeted product mixes and shopping experiences.
