A consumer survey by market analytics company Circana indicates that the 2025 holiday shopping season could lead to earlier retail sales growth compared to last year.
According to Circana’s annual holiday purchase intentions consumer survey, 44% of respondents said they plan to start shopping earlier in the season than they usually would. More holiday shoppers plan to get started on their purchases before Thanksgiving than last year, Circana reported.
“Today’s consumer is more focused on planning and prioritizing on their quest for value,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail advisor for Circana. “Getting an earlier start on holiday shopping gives them more control and choice when it comes to making a purchase decision, rather than feeling the pressure of filling a last-minute need.”
Intentions to start holiday shopping before Thanksgiving have returned to the level seen ahead of the 2023 holiday season (47.6%), an increase from last year’s dip to 44.8%. Intentions for mid-season (Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Thanksgiving weekend, and Cyber Monday) and late-season shopping have both declined, according to Circana. Last-minute shoppers who plan to wait until early December or later to start their holiday shopping are at the lowest level in four years (19.2%).
While most consumers plan on starting their holiday shopping early in the season, 19% have their sights set on Black Friday as their holiday shopping kickoff day, according to the Circana survey. In 2024, Black Friday maintained its position as the top shopping day in the fourth quarter across physical and digital retail. Black Friday this year was identified by the largest share of consumers (23%) as the time they expect to find the best holiday shopping deals.
Promotions will have a more significant influence on holiday shopping this year, Circana reported, with 37% of holiday shoppers indicating they will buy more items on sale or during promotions to save money. However, Circana noted early-season promotions exposed a byproduct of expected sales events: The anticipation of such promotional periods triggers a wait-and-see mode among shoppers that creates purchasing pullback in advance of the promotion itself.
“Even with lower prices, consumers have become less impulsive — doubling down on their ‘need now, buy now’ mindset,” Cohen said. “Marketers need to continue to assess ways to achieve dynamic success with consumers by making their brands, their stores destinations that hit the mark on product and value at the right time.”
