Coresight Research estimated retail sales growth will accelerate to 4.4% year-over-year at the close of 2026.
The stage was set by developments occurring earlier this year, including higher tax refunds that flowed into consumer spending, higher prices and what looks to be ongoing solid economic growth, according to Coresight. Yearly retail sales growth in 2026 should be the best since 2022, the retail and technology market researcher noted.
Real growth in the period since the COVID-19 pandemic has been driven by consumer real spending gains despite pressure from inflation, Coresight said. Still, real growth has begun to slow under the weight of increased prices.
In 2026 for the first time, Coresight pointed out, a pair of retail companies — Walmart and Amazon — each are expected capture more than 10% of total retail sales. Walmart’s share was 11.08% in 2025, a position it has marginally extended since 2021, while Amazon this year has hit 10.34%.
Another development Coresight noted was the consistent market-share growth of off-price retailers and discount formats in recent years. Store expansion has been fueling the growth of value-centric retailers, which has been accomplished with limited online presence.
