The National Retail Federation has followed up its holiday sales growth forecast with additional consumer research insights indicating that shoppers will be more careful about how and where they spend more on gifts and other festive goods this year.
In its 2026 holiday forecast, NRF reported it expects seasonal spending across November and December to grow 4.2% from 2025, advancing to $1.01 trillion.
Online remains the leading seasonal shopping destination, with 53% of consumers planning to shop digitally during the holidays, according to NRF. Some 43% will shop at grocery stores for holiday items, the same proportion who plan to shop at discount stores and a point more than those who will shop at department stores.
NRF noted 56% of holiday shoppers responding to the survey said the state of the economy has affected their holiday spending plans this year, with 43% planning to shop for sales more often, 31% making digital comparisons on goods that spark their interest and 29% using coupons more often, among other strategies to make the season more affordable.
To better act on their budget allocations for the season, 43% of consumers said their holiday shopping plans include starting to browse and buy before November, slightly more than 42% did last year. Among those starting early, half plan to spread out their holiday budgets, and 37% plan to shop before the traditional season because prices and promotions are too good to pass up.
Many consumers plan to do the opposite, with 46% choosing to hold back until November and December because they believe the best prices and promotions appear in that timeframe. As such, NRF maintained that late-season sales and promotions continue to play an important role throughout the holiday season, with 64% of consumers saying they are likely to wait until Thanksgiving weekend to do most of their shopping, a point higher than last year.
Gift cards remain at the top of consumers’ wish lists, with 47% saying they would like to get one this holiday season, followed by clothing (44%), books and other media (25%) and personal care or beauty items (24%).
“With affordability top of mind, holiday shoppers are taking a thoughtful approach to spending, balancing value with preserving traditions that make the holiday season special,” said Allison Zeller, NRF vice president of industry and consumer insights. “Retailers understand consumer budget priorities and are responding with compelling products, promotions and shopping experiences that make it easier to find value while still capturing the holiday excitement.”
Phil Rist, executive vice president of strategy at NRF research partner Prosper, added, “From getting an early start to waiting for major deals and promotions, consumers are choosing when to shop based on what works best for them. Even with a significant portion of shoppers beginning before November, many still plan to take advantage of deals and promotions during Thanksgiving weekend to make progress on their holiday shopping.”
