Economic Concerns Shifting Holiday Shoppers to ‘Selective Spending’

The 2026 Holiday & E-Commerce Survey from digital marketing agency Adtaxi suggests that consumers, mindful of inflation and other economic challenges, will shift where, how and when they shop during the forthcoming holiday season.

However, the shift won’t be uniform; for example, those in the 30-44 and 45-60 cohorts will start earlier, while younger consumers will hold out longer, according to the Adtaxi report.

Adtaxi said Black Friday shouldn’t be considered the start of holiday shopping anymore, as 65.7% of consumers expect to start before Thanksgiving, and 39.8% plan to start by the end of October. Although half of younger consumers polled planned to start holiday shopping before Thanksgiving, that figure rises to 71% of 30- to 44-year-olds and 69% of 45- to 60-year-olds.

The survey suggests consumers will be active but selective as they shop for the holidays, with demand being redistributed across audiences, channels, categories and moments in the shopping calendar, Adtaxi pointed out. Survey results showed that most consumers plan to purchase holiday gifts at big box retailers (selected by 67%), as well as online marketplaces (63%). The company attributed the popularity of the two channels to their ability to solve multiple shopper needs with their available assortments, price visibility, convenience and fulfillment services.

The overlap between discovery and purchase matters, Adtaxi added, with big box shopping driving expected purchases at 67% and gift discovery at 53.4%. Online marketplaces follow at 63% for expected purchasing and  51.1% for gift discovery. Social commerce reverses the pattern, with gift discovery at 16% higher than expected purchasing at 10%.

Other findings from the Adtaxi report:

• Compared to 2025, 38.5% of consumers expect to spend more and 38.2% expect to spend about the same this year on the holidays, while 23.3% expect to spend less. 
• Given the economy, 59% of consumers said higher prices are likely to influence their holiday spending decisions.
• Consumers aged 30 to 44 are most likely to spend more this holiday season, at 48%, followed by those aged 45 to 60 at 41%.
• High-household-income consumers are more likely to boost holiday spending (47%) than those from low-income households (24%).
• Most low-income consumers (54.4%) cite wages as their top concern affecting purchase decisions, while 42.2% cite their personal financial situation.
• Most high-household-income consumers (60%) cite inflation as a major concern as they enter the holiday shopping season, followed by personal-finance pressure (31.8%).
• Consumers’ shopping priorities include seeking the lowest prices (35%) and staying within budget without sacrificing important purchases (27%), while only 9% describe a higher-spend or splurge mindset.
• Digital inclination is significant, as 62.4% of consumers expect to make at least half of their gift purchases online, and 26% expect to make three-quarters via e-commerce.
• Smartphones lead digital purchasing, with 80.7% of consumers using them to buy goods, compared with 48% using laptops, 30% using tablets, and 24% using desktops.
• Artificial intelligence hasn’t won over all shoppers yet, with only 2.3% ranking AI recommendations among top influences on brand choice. 
• Half of consumers have already used AI for shopping or purchase decisions, but adoption is highly uneven, with product research (43%), comparison shopping (39%), idea generation (35%), and deal finding (33%) among the most common uses.

On spending patterns, apparel has the strongest net positive spread, with 52% of consumers saying they’ll spend more, compared with 34% who said they would spend less. In all other product categories, consumers who said they would spend less outnumbered those who said they would spend more.

“Consumers are disciplined but not disengaged,” says Adtaxi director of research Murry Woronoff. “The 2026 holiday advantage will not come from simply spending more advertising dollars. It will come from entering earlier, finding the consumers with the greatest incremental potential, making value relevant to them and removing friction between discovery and purchase. The 2026 holiday season is not about whether consumers will spend; rather, it is about where growth exists, when those consumers enter the market, and what ultimately earns their purchase. Holiday shoppers are prepared to spend, but spending intent alone understates the challenge. Consumers are entering earlier, comparing more aggressively and evaluating every purchase against price, quality, convenience and confidence. A broad retreat from spending doesn’t define the season; selective spending does.”