A study from Bain & Co. projects sales over the Black Friday through Cyber Monday weekend will top $85 billion, or about 8.5% of 2026 holiday spending in the United States, up 8.75% year over year and outpacing the company’s total holiday season growth forecast of 4.5%.
In the study, Black Friday remained the leading sales day of the holiday season, as many consumers continue to treat it as a critical moment in and even in some cases the launch of their year-end shopping. In the 2026 Bain survey, 64% of consumers said they would shop Black Friday, up from 55% in 2025. Cyber Monday has continued to gain popularity, according to the consulting firm. The study suggested that Cyber Monday would be among the top five sales days of the year, as more consumers consider their holiday online shopping options. Some 44% of consumers plan to shop Cyber Monday in 2026 versus 41% last year, Bain added.
In all, 70% of consumers plan to shop Black Friday and/or Cyber Monday, up from 64% in last year’s pre-holiday survey, and more than 90% plan to shop either of those days or a major sales event, according to Bain. The final two weekends before Christmas are likely to be among the most critical sales days of the holidays, Bain pointed out, as six of the top 10 sales days during the 2025 holiday season occurred in those timeframes.
Overall, Bain is forecasting U.S. holiday retail sales will top $1 trillion for the first time, driven by in-store and rising e-commerce sales.
“Black Friday and Cyber Monday are becoming increasingly important battlegrounds for retailers, especially as U.S. consumers prioritize value and deal-heavy shopping days,” said Aaron Cheris, Bain global head of retail. “Retailers that capitalize on these crucial sales days with personalized promotions, can’t-miss events and targeted campaigns will set themselves up well for the rest of the holiday shopping season.”
