The National Retail Federation’s 2026 holiday sales forecast has retail sales in November and December growing by 4.2% versus 2025 and overall spending during the season reaching $1.01 trillion.
Holiday sales for the 2025 period rose 3.1% from 2024 to $972 billion, according to NRF.
NRF also reported that retailers are in the process of hiring between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers, in line with last year’s estimate of 356,000 holiday staffers. Still, retailers remain cautious amid higher gas prices, persistent inflation, higher interest rates and elevated consumer debt, which, given similar sentiments a year ago, has resulted in their taking a measured approach to seasonal hiring, NRF noted.
“This year’s forecast reflects our confidence that consumers will prioritize the holiday season even as they remain mindful of their budgets,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Retailers are prepared to meet that demand with competitive prices, value and choices for every budget.”
Mark Matthews, NRF chief economist and executive director of research, added. “We head into the holiday season with strong spending momentum, as consumers remain the bright spot in the economy. At the same time, inflation, rising gas prices and pressure on household spending will affect consumers differently across income groups.”
