The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that almost 90% of the economic burden arising from White House tariff exactions through 2025 fell on firms and consumers in the United States with the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increasing from 2.6% to 13%.
The average duty rate, applied to the actual exactions, has been two or three points lower than the average tariff rate over the year’s time due to exemptions granted, according to a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York In one example given by the bank, the U.S. levied a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, but 83% of those imports are exempt from duties under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
Another reason for the lower average duties is that importers shifted away from high-duty goods including by shifting their sourcing. China’s share of U.S. import value fell from almost 25% in 2017 to just under 10% in 2025. The European Union share was pretty much flat across the time period as was that for South Korea, while Canada and Japan declined slightly, and Mexico and Vietnam gained by a few points. U.S. tariffs have dispersed countries of origin for imports, the numbers suggest. The other category in the bank’s assessment was 20% of import value in 2017 but that gained to a little over 30% in 2025.
As the tariff and sourcing situation changed, so did the balance between what part of the excise foreign exporters and U.S. importers accepted, the bank observed. The tariff incidence, the technical term used for how foreign exporters and U.S. importers split duty costs, changed so that in the January to August period, 94% of tariff incidence fell on U.S. importers and 6% on foreign exporters. In November, 86% of tariff incidence fell on U.S. importers and 14% on foreign exporters.
