Tariffs continue to affect the international movement of goods landing in the United States, as ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.95 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units, one 20-foot container or its equivalent, in February, down 7.5% from January and down 4.2% year over year.
The Port of New York/New Jersey had not reported data by the time the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates released the February Global Port Tracker report. February is traditionally the slowest month of the import year due to Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia.
Ports have not reported March numbers, but Port Tracker projected the month at 1.97 million TEU, down 8.3% year over year. The April forecast is for 2.08 million TEU, down 5.6 year over year with May at 2.09 million TEU, up 7.3%, June at 2.1 million TEU, up 6.9%, July at 2.2 million TEU, down 8%, and August at 2.18 million TEU, down 6%.
As port activity is now, the numbers would bring the first half of 2026 to 12.3 million TEU, down 1.8% from 12.53 million TEU during the same period in 2025, Port Tractor noted. The year-over-year increases projected for May and June largely result from the sharp drop-off in imports during those months last year, following the Trump administration’s announcement of “Liberation Day” tariffs in April 2025. Imports totaled 25.4 million TEU in 2025, down 0.3% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
The conflict in Iran has not significantly affected import volume as goods have landed in major U.S. anchorages, Port Tracker noted, but ocean carriers are seeing a related increase in fuel costs that could eventually affect retailers and their customers.
“Just because retailers don’t import a lot of merchandise from the Middle East doesn’t mean the U.S. supply chain isn’t affected by the turmoil there,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “The supply chain is global and disruptions anywhere along it can have ripple effects, whether it’s rerouting of vessels, equipment out of position, higher fuel costs for shippers or rising gas prices that leave less money in consumers’ pockets. Retailers are monitoring the situation on a daily basis and working with their transportation partners to minimize any impact. In the meantime, retailers continue to face rising tariffs and continued trade policy uncertainty that put downward pressure on imports and upward pressure on prices.”
President Donald Trump last month announced a temporary 10% global tariff under the Trade Act of 1974 after the Supreme Court ruled that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were illegal. Last week, the Trump administration adjusted Section 232 tariffs imposed last year on imported steel, aluminum and copper, and announced new Section 232 tariffs on pharmaceutical products and ingredients.
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said volume at U.S. container imports has been slowed by tariffs, but not the conflict in Iran. Still, Iran’s Strait of Hormuz blockade is driving up the price of fuel for container ships worldwide at the same time consumers are paying more for gasoline, he said. In addition, ports in Asia depend on fuel from the Persian Gulf and could face shortages if the current two-week ceasefire doesn’t lead to a resolution.
“The United States is less impacted operationally as there is no shortage of fuel at U.S. ports, but the price of fuel here is based on international pricing,” Hackett said. “Higher fuel costs drive up the price of shipping a container for either import or export and ultimately have an inflationary impact on consumers and other end users.”
Global Port Tracker, produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
