The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index gained 0.8 points in March from February to 91.8, still below the 100 line that separates positive from negative sentiments with the outlook for six months from now overshadowing a brighter view on the current conditions.
The Present Situation Index, based on the assessment of current business and labor market circumstances by consumers in the United States. gained 4.6 points in March from February to 123.3. The Expectations Index, based on U.S. consumers short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, slipped 1.7 points to 70.9.
Consumer intentions about buying big-ticket items during the next six months softened in March. Nonetheless, the proportion saying they would make such purchases remained well above the “maybe” and “no” responses in the survey. Used cars, furniture, televisions and smartphones remained the most popular in future big-ticket purchase plans. Among expensive items, furniture remained to top expected purchase, the Conference Board pointed out.
Home-buying expectations came in a bit lower on a six-month rolling basis ending in March for existing and new units, as consumers continued to prefer existing homes to those newly built. Plans to purchase all types of home furnishings, white goods and electronics improved in March on a six-month moving average basis.
Domestic travel intentions remained strong in March, while foreign travel plans collapsed, likely because of international conflicts, the Conference Board observed. Expected spending on airfare/trains for personal travel slipped in March after staying unchanged from January to February.
In the Present Situation Index, when contrasting positive to negative responses to the index survey, net views of current business conditions improved to positive 5.6% after hovering around 1% to 2% for three months. Perceptions of employment conditions improved, with the share of consumers saying jobs are plentiful less the share saying jobs are hard to get ticking up by 0.1 point to positive 5.8%.
The Expectations Index dipped as net perceptions of labor market and household income conditions six months from now edged downward. Yet, expected business conditions in March registered as slightly less pessimistic.
Among demographic groups, confidence on a six-month moving average basis continued to moderate during March for consumers under age 35, as well as for those 55 and over. Confidence remained virtually unchanged for those aged 35 to 54 after a multi-month decline, according to the Conference Board. Respondents under 35 remain most optimistic, while those 55 and over were least confident. On a six-month moving average basis, Gen Z remained the most confident among generations, but their optimism slipped in March along with that of the Silent Generation, Baby Boomers and Gen X. Only Millennials registered improved confidence month over month.
Confidence on a six-month moving average basis continued to slip in six of eight income groups. Only consumers earning $25,000-$34,999 and $125,000 and over proved somewhat more optimistic.
Consumer average and median 12-month inflation expectations surged in March to levels last seen in August 2025, an increase the Conference Board attributed to fallout from the Iran War. The August 2025 increase in inflation expectations occurred as consumers awaited more tariff announcements from the U.S. Federal government. The percentage of consumers stating a belief that interest rates during the next 12 months would increase skyrocketed from 34.9% to 42.4%, the Conference Board added, as expectations for higher stock prices a year from now plunged.
Consumer net views of their Family’s Current Financial Situation improved slightly in March after sliding in February. Expectations for their Family’s Future Financial Situation were less optimistic. Meanwhile, the share of consumers who said a U.S. recession during the next 12 months is “very likely” rose, while those saying “somewhat likely” or “not likely” fell.
In the present situation, 21.9% of consumers said business conditions were good in March, up from 20.4% in February while 16.3% said business conditions were bad, down from 19%. On net, March consumer perception of the labor market was virtually unchanged. In looking at employment, 27.3% of consumers said jobs were plentiful, up slightly from 26.7% in February, while 21.5% of consumers said jobs were hard to get, also up slightly from 21%.
In expectations six months from now, 18.2% of consumers expected business conditions to improve, up from 17.6% in February, while 21.3% expected business conditions to worsen, up slightly from 21.2%. Overall, consumers were more negative about the labor market outlook in March. On employment prospects, 15.4% of consumers expected more jobs to open, down from 16% in February, with 27.9% anticipating lesser job availability, up from 26.2%.
Consumer outlook for income prospects was mixed to slightly negative in March as 19.2% of consumers expected their incomes to advance, up from 18.4% in February, and 13.9% expected their incomes to decline, up from 12.5%.
“Consumer confidence ticked up again in March, as a modest improvement in consumers’ views of current conditions outweighed a slight downshift in expectations for the future,” said Dana Peterson, Conference Board chief economist. “Three of five components of the index firmed in March, and overall confidence improved modestly for a second month. Nonetheless, the Index has been on a general downward trend since 2021. Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism. Comments about prices and the cost of goods suggest that the cost of living remained at the top of consumers’ minds. As the war in Iran overlapped significantly with the survey sample period, comments about oil/gas and war/conflict spiked, while specific mentions of trade and tariffs decreased notably.”
