The 2026 ICSC Holiday Intentions Survey is forecasting year-over-year retail sales growth of between 4.3% and 4.9% during the upcoming season, with total spend expected to top $1.7 trillion.
The ICSC survey suggests consumers will prioritize holiday purchases and experiences above competing financial priorities.
As the shopping season approaches, 88% of adults in the United States plan to purchase gifts and related items in the October-to-December holiday season, with 78% planning to spend the same or more than than in 2025, the former International Council of Shopping Centers reported.
In the ICSC survey, 83% of respondents said they can keep up financially with basic expenses, but many acknowledge increased financial pressure. Under the circumstances, 49% of survey respondents worry about being able to afford holiday gifts this year and half said their personal or household debt would affect their holiday spending. In addition, more consumers said concerns about the job market will affect how much they plan to spend this holiday season, up to 49% this year from 43% in 2025, ICSC noted.
Consumers expect to make trade-offs as they approach holiday shopping this year, as 49% of survey respondents anticipated borrowing money to cover purchases they cannot immediately pay off in full. Then, 47% expect holiday outlays will result in their delaying or reducing debt repayments, savings deposits or retirement contributions. Some 23% said they expect to continue paying for their 2026 holiday purchases into 2027.
The desire to preserve holiday traditions remains a compelling reason for consumers to keep on spending, ICSC pointed out,. However, the urge does not necessarily guarantee loyalty to retailers or brands: 48% of survey respondents anticipated trying a new brand, while 52% planned to shop with a retailer they have not tapped before. In preparing to shop, 27% of consumers intended to do more research or comparison shopping as they confront higher prices or budget concerns. One in four expected switching to lower-priced products or brands. Even among shoppers planning to spend more than average, about 40% expect to buy fewer items, choose cheaper alternatives or buy second-hand goods.
As they hunt for value, 68% of shoppers said discounts, promotions and exclusive deals are likely to prompt store trips, and 93% expect to visit a physical store to purchase an item or pick up an online order, including 97% of Gen Zers, ICSC indicated. Some 34% of consumers planning to visit stores as they purchase gifts and related items characterize such trips as social outings or occasions that combine shopping, dining and entertainment. The proportion increases to 48% for Gen Zers. Half of Gen Z holiday shoppers plan to spend more on experiences than last year, highlighting the opportunity for shopping centers to bring retail, dining and seasonal activities together, ICSC stated.
Value is a critical concern, and 61% of survey respondents said they plan to use AI tools or assistants to help them check off their gift lists, up from 47% in 2025. Comparing prices is the most common planned use, for 29% of respondents, followed by researching products and features, for 19%, checking availability, for 18%, and finding deals, for 16%. Many shoppers plan to use AI as they prepare to finalized purchases, with 86% intending to conduct additional research before checking out.
“Consumers have made it clear they are willing to make sacrifices for the things that matter to them this holiday season, but they are making careful decisions about when and where they spend to make that money go further,” said Tom McGee, ICSC president and CEO. “Shoppers remain resilient, but they’re more discerning and value-conscious: Competitive prices, convenient shopping options and experiences that bring people together are non-negotiable for retailers to attract shoppers and give them reasons to return throughout the season.”
