Spend management platform Coupa has released research demonstrating consumers, buyers and product suppliers expect tariffs to have a significant effect on the 2025 holiday season.
In the Coupa research, 88% of consumers said they believe that companies will pass down costs to them as new tariffs come online. As they weighed their holiday strategies, 49% of suppliers across major consumer product categories reported plans to increase prices, and 46% were increasing inventory and stockpiling, while 29% of suppliers characterized tariffs as the greatest external threat to profits in 2025.
The Coupa research study revealed 84% of U.S. consumers cited cost over quality and variety as the most important factor when shopping. Cost of living is a critical concern for 36% of consumers and trade policies threatening to increase the cost of goods is the big worry for 24%. With the current market environment being what it is, 54% of consumers polled said they have looked for deals or discounts on necessities, 53% have decreased spending on non-essential items, and 67% have adjusted where they spend to get better cost options. Among consumers who have cut back on non-essential spending, 68% are dining out less and 52% are swapping brand-name items for generics.
For their part, 42% of suppliers based in the United States think that tariffs will be the greatest threat to their business for the year’s penultimate selling season and 69% expect a decline in revenue this year because of duties. Globally, suppliers cite threats from competitors undercutting prices, a concern for 24%; and raw materials shortages, cited by 14%, as the greatest threats to their businesses.
When looking ahead to the holiday season, 60% of toy and game suppliers and half of consumer electronics vendors identified tariffs as the largest threat to their business, tops among industries included in the research. In response to duty pressures, 70% of toy and game suppliers told Coupa that they would increase prices, while 30% of electronics suppliers plan to increase onshoring.
None of the suppliers surveyed by Coupa in the research planned to increase prices by more than 20% in response to tariffs. However, 56% stated they are planning for 5% to 10% price increases. If that holds true, consumer household budgets would need to adjust by at least $300 a month to purchase the same goods. With the research demonstrating that consumers are less apt to spend on non-essential goods while enduring budget pressure from rising prices, Coupa noted that gift purchasing is likely to diminish in the upcoming holiday season.
Buyers are concerned about tariffs as well. In the research, 55% expected recent trade policies to cause a negative impact on their bottom line in 2025. As they scramble to deal with tariffs, 75% of buyers globally maintained their companies have increased or plan to increase nearshoring, while 61% have increased or plan to increase onshoring. Yet, at the same time, 56% have increased or plan to increase offshoring. Companies are moving away from sourcing from China, true for 36%, followed by the U.S., for 29%, and Germany, for 23%, in response to predicted tariffs. Buyers expressed a preference for suppliers with proven quality and reliability, at 60%, stable and competitive pricing, at 57%, and full compliance with regulations, at 42%, as they prepare for the holidays.
The Coupa research included three separate surveys, the company stated, the first conducted among 400 managers and above responsible for procurement, sourcing, inventory and pricing within organizations providing goods or services to other businesses or organizations with an annual revenue of $250 million or more in the U.S., United Kingdom, France, and Germany. The second survey involved 400 managers and above with decision-making responsibility across procurement, sourcing, and inventory in organizations making purchases with suppliers to resell or sell through their own operations, all with annual revenue of $250 million or more in the U.K., U.S., France, and Germany. The third survey reached out to 1,000 U.S.-based consumers over 18 years of age.
