Sensormatic Solutions expects U.S. retailers to see their biggest holiday crowds on Black Friday, November 28, followed by two Saturdays before Christmas, December 20 and 13, even as overall store traffic is projected to remain flat compared to last year.
As in years past, the traffic tracking firm pointed out, early afternoon should be the busiest time of day for in-store shopping throughout the season, with visits likely to peak between 2 and 3 p.m.
Based on Sensormatic Solutions U.S. traffic data, the busiest shopping days will be:
- November 28, Black Friday
- December 20, Super Saturday
- December 13, Second Saturday in December
- December 21, Super Sunday
- December 26, Boxing Day
- November 29, Saturday after Thanksgiving
- December 23, Tuesday before Christmas
- December 6, First Saturday in December
- December 27, Saturday after Christmas
- December 19, Friday before Christmas
“To no one’s surprise, our predictions show that Black Friday will still be the highlight of the U.S. holiday shopping season, but retailers are likely to see some interesting deviations from recent years thanks to the calendar and changing shopper preferences,” said Grant Gustafson, Sensormatic Solutions’ head of retail consulting and analytics, in announcing the predictions. “It’s a great example of how one-to-one historical traffic data can provide a framework for retailers’ holiday planning, but it can’t tell the entire story. It’s why we look to a broad range of indicators when determining our predictions for the busiest days of the season.”
Gustafson added that Sensormatic’s “data from the past year shows that the retailers that ‘win’ the holiday season carry that momentum into the new year. More than three-quarters of 2024’s holiday traffic leaders have maintained an edge throughout 2025 so far. Given the increased interest in and use of in-store pickup options was a defining feature of the 2025 back-to-school rush, these programs are likely to be key differentiators throughout the holiday shopping season. Businesses that keep a close eye on their real-time data and are prepared to maintain seamless pickup and in-store journeys will fare better in the eyes of their customers this winter, setting them up for success in the year to come.”
