Analysis by retail traffic tracker and market researcher Placer.ai identified retailers with a particularly good 2026 outlook, and the top prospects include Walmart and the TJX tandem of HomeGoods and Homesense.
Placer.ai noted that the diversity of brands featured in its analysis highlights that there is no single path to success in 2026. The company maintained, for example, that Walmart’s recent history suggests that even in saturated markets, operational innovation can drive momentum. Meanwhile, having affordable products consumers can tap as they enliven domestic environments should drive HomeGoods and Homesense opportunities, according to Placer.ai. As the new year proceeds from the old, the brands that win will be those that combine a clear understanding of their unique value proposition with the agility to execute on it, Placer.ai asserted.
Among the retailers that have an edge, as characterized by Placer.ai:
- Walmart. The dominant player in physical retail has leveraged its position to advance new offerings that extend revenue potential while maximizing per-store impact. A pioneer in the retail media space, the company has used unique reach to advance that side of the business. Walmart is among the savviest retailers when it comes to identifying the best approaches to omnichannel operations, using its massive physical footprint to improve the company’s reach via buy online, pick up in store and store-fulfilled e-commerce.
- HomeGoods and Homesense. Retailers are waiting for many discretionary product categories to recover from the lull after spikes related to the COVID-19 pandemic, but housewares retailers generally enjoyed solid visit trends in 2025. Shoppers may not be financially positioned for large-scale home remodels, but the pandemic was five years ago and many consumers are feeling the need to refresh their living — and, in many cases, domestic work — spaces. Such circumstances may have helped drive exceptional 2025 results at the TJX Cos. HomeGoods and Homesense banners and put them on a good footing for success in 2026. A behavioral shift among middle-income consumers, including a clear trade down from mid-tier department stores and other discretionary categories, has become evident. In addition, accumulated housing wear-and-tear, the recent bankruptcies of value-oriented competitors such as Conn’s, and the enduring appeal of the treasure hunt retail model have invigorated the HomeGoods and Homesense momentum.
- Michaels. While it commanded 32% of overall visit share among the top four retailers in the wider crafts and hobby space before the closure of two key competitors, Michaels saw its portion of store traffic in its channel grow to 40% in 2025, when Michaels’ rivals JoAnn Fabrics and Party City folded. Still, the increasing share of overall visits wasn’t just due to the removal of competitors. Not only that but, Michaels’ rate of capture appears to be accelerating. In 2025’s second quarter, visits rose 7.3% year over year as Michaels began absorbing traffic from Party City, which closed the bulk of its locations by March. Growth strengthened further in Q3, with visits up 13.1% year over year following the May completion of JoAnn’s shutdown. During the fourth quarter of 2025, traffic surged again, suggesting consolidation alone doesn’t fully explain the gains, which may be arising from initiatives including NFL partnerships, the addition of JoAnn’s branded merchandise and Michael’s challenge to Etsy’s online dominance in craft-related merchandise with a new marketplace.
- Dillard’s. Store traffic at Dillard’s was essentially flat in 2025 versus 2024, but the chain consistently outperformed the wider department store category. Dillard’s has a unique market position somewhere between a mid-tier and luxury department store, and that distinction may be its secret to success. The retailer has a strong private-label offering that rivals and often exceeds national brands in value, as well as a diverse merchandise mix and locations that often benefit from indoor mall traffic trends. Although Dillard’s lags behind the wider department store category in terms of repeat visitation and share of wealthy visitors, efforts by the department store operator to update its product mix through limited-edition capsule collections and new brand launches may be helping it attract a steady inflow of economically diverse new customers. The ability to win over new segments without alienating core customers could be a strength amid economic headwinds and waning consumer sentiment.
- H-E-B. A supermarket operator that has enjoyed monthly visit gains year over year for all but one month since April of 2021, H-E-B positions itself to emphasize authenticity, a critical consumer consideration today, and operates with a clear understanding of its audience. As such, the company optimizes its merchandising, promotions and experience to best serve a customer base that generates high loyalty scores. H-E-B also embraces adjacent innovation, leveraging its existing fleet by adding True Texas BBQ foodservice operations to more of its supermarket locations, boosting the revenue potential per customer visit, underscoring the brand’s core identity and further deepening customer connection as shoppers turn to grocery stores for affordable, restaurant-quality lunches.
- Pop Mart. The retailer responsible for bringing the Labubu plush toy craze to the United States became an overnight sensation, with store visits building over the summer as the fad reached full swing, while trade areas expanded as customers traveled significant distances to get their hands on a doll. Even if the frenzy cooled a bit early last fall, visits to Pop Mart locations began trending up again in November 2025 as the holiday season approached, surging even higher than previously during December. Trade area size also increased dramatically during the holiday shopping season as consumers rushed to get their hands on the chain’s coveted line of festive blind boxes.
