The National Retail Federation reportedcore retail sales in the holiday season gained 3.8% from the year-earlier period, near the top of the organization’s forecast range.
NRF had forecast 2023 holiday sales would advance between 3% and 4% over 2022 to between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion. Despite a slower growth rate compared with the past three years, when trillions of dollars in government stimulus payments related to the COVID-19 pandemic boosted retail spending, 2023’s holiday sales were consistent with the average annual holiday increase of 3.6% from 2010 to 2019, NRF maintained.
NRF’s calculation of core retail sales excludes revenues from automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants. The organization defines the holiday season as November 1 through December 31.
The holiday total includes online and other non-store sales, which were up 8.2% to $276.8 billion unadjusted for inflation. NRF had forecast non-store sales would grow between 7% and 9% to between $273.7 billion and $278.8 billion. Non-store holiday sales were $255.8 billion in 2022, NRF pointed out.
The $5.13 trillion full-year sales total fell in line with NRF’s most recent prediction that 2023 annual retail sales would increase about or just below 4% from 2022’s $4.95 trillion.
For December alone, core retail sales increased 0.7% seasonally adjusted from November and 3.3% unadjusted year over year, NRF indicated. Sales grew 0.4% month over month in November and 4.2% year over year.
The Census Bureau overall December retail sales including autos, gas and restaurants were up 0.6% from November and 5.6% year over year. In November, the Census Bureau numbers were up 0.3% month over month and 4% year over year.
By channel for the two months combined, on an unadjusted year-over-year basis, NRF accounted sales as follows:
- General merchandise stores up 2%.
- Furniture and home furnishings stores down 6.2%.
- Building materials and garden supply stores down 3.9%.
- Electronics and appliance stores up 9.3%.
- Health and personal care stores up 9%.
- Grocery and beverage stores up 1.1%.
- Sporting goods stores up 0.3%.
- Clothing and clothing accessory stores up 3%.
- Online and other non-store sales up 8.2%.
“Consumer spending was remarkably resilient throughout 2023 and finished the year with a solid pace for the holiday season,” NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “Although inflation has been the biggest concern for households, the price of goods eased notably and was helped by a healthy labor market, underscoring a successful holiday season for retailers.”
