The Spring 2026 ISM Supply Chain Planning Forecast is more optimistic on the growth of the United States economy through the end of 2026 than was the case at the year’s beginning.
The Institute for Supply Management noted that the U.S. economy continues to successfully battle the headwinds posed by trade issues, continued inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty. In looking through to the end of 2026, expectations expressed by U.S. purchasing and supply executives participating in the latest ISM research were higher than those expressed in December 2025, the organization noted.
On the services side of the economy, respondents anticipated 8.6% revenue growth in 2026, four percentage points higher than the 4.6% increase forecast in December 2025. Then, 81% respondents to ISM polling said that revenues for 2026 will increase by 12.9% on average versus 2025. Just 15% said they expect their revenues to decrease, and 4% expect no change.
“The services sector will continue to lead the economy in 2026,” said Steve Miller, chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee. “Services companies are currently operating at 91.3% of normal capacity. Supply managers indicate that prices are expected to increase 8.9% over the year, reflecting increasing inflation. Employment is projected to grow only slightly, 0.9 percentage point.”
In the research, 16 services industries projected revenue increases in 2026: Mining; Retail Trade; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Other Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Public Administration; Information; Utilities; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Educational Services, and Transportation & Warehousing.
As for manufacturing, the executives polled expected 2026 revenue to increase by 8.4% on average. The figure is four points higher than the December 2025 forecast of 4.4% and 5.9 points higher than the 2.5-point year-over-year increase reported for 2025. In all, 82% of respondents said revenues for 2026 will increase by 12.7% on average versus 2025. Just 17% said revenues will decrease. With an operating rate of 86.9%, a projected 4.9% increase in capital expenditures, a 14.1% increase in prices paid for raw materials and a 1.4% employment increase expected by 2026’s end, the manufacturing sector will continue to grow through 2026.
“With 14 manufacturing industries expecting revenue growth and seven industries expecting employment growth in 2026, panelists forecast a healthy rest of the year,” said Susan Spence, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “Sentiment in each industry was generally consistent with performance reports in the May 2026 Manufacturing ISM PMI Reports, as well as the fall ISM Supply Chain Planning Forecast released in December.”
The 14 manufacturing industries anticipating revenue growth are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Furniture & Related Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery, and Chemical Products.
