Consumers are developing a case of promotion fatigue, which calls into question how retailers will handle the issue of trust through the 2026 holiday season, according to the Boston Consulting Group (BCC).
BCG concluded in its sixth annual Black Friday Study, for instance, that trust is shifting from influencers and social media to artificial intelligence among consumers seeking shopping inspiration. As an example of how the phenomenon is occurring, the business services firm pointed out that only 54% of consumers in a recent survey trust that advertised prices for year-end promotions, such as Black Friday, are genuinely lower than usual.
In the United States, 16% of consumers surveyed said they completely trust and 46% said they somewhat trust that the discounts in year-end promotions are really lower in price, versus 12% and 42% of consumers, respectively, across the 10 markets where BCG conducted its Black Friday study. At the same time, 23%, 11% and 4% of U.S. consumers, respectively, neither trust nor distrust, distrust somewhat or completely distrust year-end deal claims.
In the survey, 22% of respondents said they planned to spend less during or skip year-end sales events because they believe similar discounts drop all the time. Still, consumers haven’t raised the bar for what constitutes a good deal, BCG indicated, saying that a real deal has to be 30% off.
BCG asked consumers what they look for when evaluating their faith in a retailer. Reputation and money-back guarantees were the most important trust factors for survey respondents, each with a net trust score of 65%. Next came verified purchase reviews, cited by 59% of survey respondents, followed by clear comparisons between regular and discounted prices, cited by 58%. At the bottom of the ranking were AI-generated review summaries, cited by 4%, and influencer recommendations, important to 3%.
Fewer consumers referenced social media as a source of shopping inspiration, down nine percentage points year over year to 46%, falling in every market surveyed. However, AI as an inspiration source increased across all 10 markets polled. Planned artificial intelligence usage reached 56% of shoppers this year, up eight points from 2025. In all, 86% of users said they find AI helpful, and 78% said it raises their likelihood of completing a purchase. Consumers trust AI most for comparing prices across retailers, cited by 39%, and comparing product features, cited by 37%.
“Shoppers no longer take Black Friday discounts at face value,” stated Nate Shenck, a BCG managing director and senior partner, and the study co-author. “Nearly half are unconvinced that prices are actually lower. Retailers can’t discount their way past that. The question this season is how to earn shoppers’ trust.”
Jessica Distler, a BCG managing director and partner, and report co-author, added. “Shoppers facing promotion fatigue are turning to AI to do the work of finding and comparing deals. AI is already beginning to replace influencers as a go-to source for inspiration. That means retailers need to think as carefully about how their offers are found and verified as they do about the discounts themselves.”
