Visa Business and Economic Insights (VBEI) forecasts a 4.5% year-over-year advance in holiday retail sales across the United States in November and December, a spending gain that Visa noted will exceed inflation for the strongest seasonal growth since 2021.
The outlook points to continued U.S. consumer resilience, VBEI pointed out, supported by solid income growth and household wealth, even if inflation reroutes some holiday dollars as shoppers seek out better value. VBEI expects prices for holiday-related goods to rise approximately 3.4%, with inflation-adjusted holiday spending growing by 1.1%.
Consumers polled in a VBEI survey said they plan to spend an average of $777 on holiday gifts this year, up from $736 in 2025, a 5.6% increase. About a third of survey respondents earning less than $100,000 said they plan to switch to lower-cost brands or stores for holiday gifts compared with last year, VBEI noted, underscoring the continued importance of value. Only 15% of consumers said they are prioritizing spending on experiences compared with 27% prioritizing physical gifts.
“Consumers are heading into the holidays with the capacity and willingness to spend, even if they’re being thoughtful about where those dollars go,” said Michael Brown, principal U.S. economist at Visa. “Income growth continues to provide an important foundation for spending, and while higher prices remain part of the picture, we expect another healthy holiday season. Consumers are still spending, but they’re making deliberate choices about where their holiday dollars go. That combination of healthy spending and continued focus on value is likely to define this holiday season.”
