According to the Deloitte annual holiday season forecast, retail sales in the upcoming November to January timeframe look to increase between 4% and 6%.
Overall, Deloitte’s retail and consumer products practice projects sales will total $1.45 to $1.47 trillion in the holiday season. In the year-prior period, holiday sales grew by 15.1%, the consultancy and audit firm noted.
Deloitte projects e-commerce sales growth of 12.8% to 14.3%, year-over-year during the upcoming holiday season. As such, e-commerce holiday sales will reach between $260 billion and $264 billion this season.
“The lower projected growth for the 2022 holiday season reflects the slowdown in the economy this year,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster, in announcing the holiday projections. “Retail sales are likely to be further affected by declining demand for durable consumer goods, which had been the centerpiece of pandemic spending. However, we anticipate more spending on consumer services, such as restaurants, as the effects of the pandemic continue to wane. Inflation will also help to raise dollar sales, although retailers will see less growth in sales volume.”
Nick Handrinos, vice chair, Deloitte LLP, and U.S. retail, wholesale and distribution and consumer products leader, added, “As inflation weighs on consumer demand, we can expect consumers to continue to shift how they spend their holiday budget this upcoming season. Retail sales are set to increase as a result of higher prices, and this dynamic has the potential to further drive e-commerce sales as consumers look for online deals to maximize their spending. Retailers across channels who remain aligned with consumer demand and offer convenient and affordable options can be well positioned for success this season.”
