The holiday online shopping forecast just released by Adobe has U.S. spending during the 2026 holiday period crossing the $275 billion milestone.
The Adobe forecast for November 1 to December 31 as U.S. digital sales hitting $275.1 billion, up 6.7% year-over-year. The software and business services firm expects Cyber Week, the five-day period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, to drive $47.5 billion in sales online, up 7.4% year over year and representing 17.3% of the full holiday season spend.
Adobe predicts Cyber Monday, November 30, will set its own online milestone with consumers spending over more than $15 billion in a single day, hitting $15.1 billion, up 6.2% year over year. Black Friday will be the second biggest sales digital day of the holidays at $12.9 billion, up 9.2% year over year, in part because it typically includes the biggest discounts for categories such as television, apparel and appliances. On Thanksgiving, consumers are likely to spend about $6.9 billion, up 8.5% year over year, bolstered by impulse shopping, with a record 63% of online sales set to come via mobile devices, up from 61.6% in 2025. The proportion outpaces what Adobe anticipates for the full season, at 57.4%, up from 56.4% in 2025.
October will include the Amazon Prime Day promotion and related retail discount events, expected by Adober to have an effect on the later holiday season. Adobe predicts October online spending will reach $95.8 billion, up 8% versus the year-prior month. The company anticipates Prime Day generating $9.9 billion in sales from October 6 to 7, up 9.2% year over year, driven in part by discounts that are set to peak at 19% off listed price.
For the November/December timeframe, Adobe expects online competitive discounts of up to 30% off listed price during Cyber Week. Still, shoppers will see deals throughout the season, up to 14% in early November, up to 21% just before Thanksgiving and up to 10% to 15% throughout December.
As for product categories, Adobe forecast holiday digital sales to come in a $63.3 billion, up 5.9% year over year; apparel coming at $51.3 billion, up 4.7%; furniture at $33.4 billion, up 7.3%; grocery at $26.1 billion, up 10.3%; toys at $9.6 billion, up 9.6%; and cosmetics coming in at $9.2 billion, up 9.5%.
Then, Adobe anticipates Buy Now Pay Later financing to drive spending of $21.3 billion in the holidays, up 6.6% from the 2025 period.
