Deloitte is forecasting a 2006 holiday retail sales increase of 4% to 4.8% compared to the same period in 2025, with total sales for the 2026 season expected to register between $1.7 trillion and $1.71 trillion.
The holiday sales outlook from the business services firm covers a three-month period from November 2026 through January 2027 as opposed to the two-month, November/December holiday period forecasts in a recent repot by Bain and one expected soon from the National Retail Federation.
In 2025, Deloitte noted, holiday sales for the three-month period increased by 4.1% and totaled $1.63 trillion, according to the United States Census Bureau.
Deloitte anticipates year-over-year e-commerce sales growth for the upcoming holiday period of between 7.5% and 8.4%, reaching between $316.1 billion to $318.9 billion. E-commerce sales in the 2025 holidays grew 7.5% to $294 billion, Deloitte stated.
“Disposable personal income remains an important input to our holiday retail forecast,” said Akrur Barua, an economist at Deloitte Insights. “We project DPI to grow between 4.5% to 5.2% during the holiday season, which we believe to be a strong predictor of retail and e-commerce sales. The continued growth in e-commerce sales is also expected to be aided by consumers’ ongoing use of digital tools to research, compare and complete purchases across all categories.”
Natalie Martini, Deloitte vice chair and U.S. retail and consumer products leader, added, “Consumers continue to place importance on making the holidays special for their friends and families, while also making deliberate choices about how they spend. As they look to get more out of their dollars, we continue to see value-seeking behaviors across income levels, including switching among brands and retailers and using promotions to manage spending. These behaviors are expected to shape how consumers approach holiday shopping this season.”
