Import volumes at major U.S. container ports are expected to rise year over year in June as retailers bring merchandise into the country ahead of potential tariff increases and higher shipping costs, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
Despite the expected June increase, import volumes are forecast to remain below year-earlier levels through much of the fall.
U.S. ports covered by Port Tracker handled 2.05 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (a 20-foot container or its equivalent) in April, although the Port of New York and New Jersey has not yet reported its numbers. The April number was down 5.1% from March and 7.3% year over year.
Ports have yet to report May numbers. However, Port Tracker projected the month at 2.14 million TEU, up 9.7% from a year earlier, when imports were sharply down due to U.S. tariff impositions. It forecast June at 2.25 million TEU, up 14.3%, with the increase again due to low imports in the year earlier. Then, Port Tracker forecast July at 2.19 million TEU, down 8.4% year over year, August at 2.12 million TEU, down 8.6%, and September at 2.06 million TEU, down 2.2%, while the October outlook is for 2.08 million TEU, up 0.1%.
“We expect to see a year-over-year increase this month that’s partly driven by retailers bringing in merchandise early because of higher costs from tariffs or fuel prices that could come starting in August,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in announcing the numbers. “Nonetheless, the ongoing trend is for lower imports as the conflict in Iran continues to cause higher inflation and economic uncertainty.”
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said the year-over-year gain expected in June is partly due to comparisons with import levels that fell sharply after President Donald Trump announced new tariffs in April 2025. Still, higher shipping costs and worries about additional tariffs imposed after those tariffs were ruled illegal by the U.S. Supreme Court are also a concern going forward.
“We have increased our outlook for June cargo volume as retailers bring forward their peak season cargo to mitigate increasing shipping costs as carriers pass along the sharply rising cost of fuel and because of concerns about punitive replacement tariffs,” Hackett said. “The current import surge will likely last into July, with an early peak season that resembles the more recent pattern of raised volume rather than a sharp peak. After this, we expect a weakening in import volume as consumer uncertainty remains high and the impact of increasing inflation takes its toll.”
