Even with recent inflationary challenges, the National Retail Federation has forecast that holiday retail sales during November and December will grow between 6% and 8% over 2021 to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion.
In announcing the holiday sales forecast, NRF noted that it expects online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, to increase between 10% and 12% to between $262.8 billion and $267.6 billion versus $238.9 billion in the 2021 season. Although e-commerce will remain important, NRF expects to shift back to more in-store shopping. NRF pointed out that its holiday outlook is in line with the organization’s full-year forecast for retail sales, which it expects to grow between 6% and 8% and so top $4.86 trillion in 2022.
In announcing the forecast, NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay, said, “While consumers are feeling the pressure of inflation and higher prices, and while there is continued stratification with consumer spending and behavior among households at different income levels, consumers remain resilient and continue to engage in commerce. In the face of these challenges, many households will supplement spending with savings and credit to provide a cushion and result in a positive holiday season.”
NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz added, “This holiday season cycle is anything but typical. NRF’s holiday forecast takes a number of factors into consideration, but the overall outlook is generally positive as consumer fundamentals continue to support economic activity. Despite record levels of inflation, rising interest rates and low levels of confidence, consumers have been steadfast in their spending and remain in the driver’s seat. The holiday shopping season kicked off earlier this year – a growing trend in recent years – as shoppers are concerned about inflation and availability of products. Retailers are responding to that demand, as we saw several major scheduled buying events in October. While this may result in some sales being pulled forward, we expect to see continued deals and promotions throughout the remaining months.”
NRF’s retail sales calculations exclude automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants. The organization defines the holiday season as November 1 through December 31.
