The annual Adobe online shopping forecast predicts 2025 holiday sales of $253.4 billion, a 5.3% year-over-year increase, with consumers seeking to enhance their home spaces, making a significant contribution.
The forecast, based on Adobe Analytics data, covers the period from November 1 to December 31, and indicates consumers will spend over $5 billion in a single day on 10 separate occasions, up from seven in 2024. According to Adobe, Cyber Week, including Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday, looks to drive 17.2% of overall spend this season, at $43.7 billion, up 6.3% year over year.
Cyber Monday is expected to remain the biggest online shopping day of the season and year in 2025, with sales reaching $14.2 billion, a 6.3% increase from the previous year, according to Adobe. However, Adobe expects Black Friday to enjoy higher growth this season, rising 8.3% to $11.7 billion from the year-earlier date. The Thanksgiving outlook is for online shopping spending of $6.4 billion, up 4.9% year over year, according to Adobe.
Mobile devices are expected to cement their position as the dominant shopping platform for the holiday season, driving a record 56.1% share of e-commerce spend, according to Adobe, which predicts total sales of $142.7 billion, an 8.5% year-over-year increase. The shift towards mobile shopping has accelerated recently. For example, during the 2020 holiday season, mobile accounted for 40% of digital spend, Adobe observed.
Adobe anticipates promotions this holiday season, with the average discount up to 28%, to be on par with the 2024 season, with appliance discounts at 18% versus 19.2% in 2025 and furniture discounts at 18% versus 19%. Deals will be deepest in Cyber Week, with the best appliance discounts on Black Friday.
For the 2025 holiday season, Adobe expects three categories in combination to drive 53.7% of online spend: electronics, at $57.5 billion, up 4% year over year; apparel, at $47.6 billion, up 4.4% year over year; and furniture, up $31.1 billion, up 6.5% year over year.
Competitive deals should push shoppers to trade up in higher-ticket items across certain categories, Adobe asserted, with share-of-units-sold for the most expensive goods rising by 39% in appliances, 32% in personal care and 26% in tools/home improvement. However, the trend reverses in furniture, down 8%, as shoppers embrace lower-priced items in the categories.
Adobe expects an uptick in purchases for the home, including electronics such as televisions, tools, home security products, refrigerators/freezers, health monitoring and smart home (the latter to be up more than 600%)
Adobe expects traffic generated by AI agents and browsers to rise by 520% year over year, peaking in the 10 days leading up to Thanksgiving. The expectation for purchases attributed to social media advertising is a 51% gain, while purchases attributed to affiliates and partners, such as social media influencers, are expected to grow 14%.
Adobe’s research suggested buy-now-pay-later financing will drive $20.2 billion in online sales, up 11% from the year-previous holiday season.
