With new tariffs putting pressure on international trade, import cargo volume at the major container ports in the United States is on pace to end 2025 5.6% lower than 2024 volume, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
Although ports have not yet reported numbers for July, Port Tracker projects import volume for July jumped to 2.3 million TEU as retailers brought in merchandise ahead of tariff impositions slated for August. The figure would be the highest number in a year, up 17.3% from June and down just 0.5% from the month a year earlier.
Port Tracker forecasts volume of 2.2 million TEU for August, down 5% year over year, with September at 1.83 million TEU, down 19.5% year over year. The October forecast is for 1.82 million TEU, down 18.9% year over year while the November forecast is for 1.71 million TEU, down 21.1% for the lowest total since 1.78 million TEU in April 2023. December is forecast at 1.72 million TEU, down 19.3% year over year. Although the falling aggregate totals in September through December are related to company’s pulling cargo forward during the year’s first half to beat tariff impositions, the large year-over-year percentage declines are partly because imports in late 2024 were elevated due to concerns about East and Gulf coast port strikes.
The import volume in the first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.6% year over year, Port Tracker indicated. Volume forecast for the rest of the year would bring 2025 to a total of 24.1 million TEU, down 5.6% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
“While this forecast is still preliminary, it shows the impact the tariffs and the administration’s trade policy are having on the supply chain,” aid Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “Tariffs are beginning to drive up consumer prices, and fewer imports will eventually mean fewer goods on store shelves. Small businesses especially are grappling with the ability to stay in business. We need binding trade agreements that open markets by lowering tariffs, not raising them. Tariffs are taxes paid by U.S. importers that will result in higher prices for U.S. consumers, less hiring, lower business investment and a slower economy.”
The forecast comes as a new round of higher tariffs affecting many countries went into effect today (August 8) and after months tariff impositions, pauses, negotiations and reimpositions on goods from dozens of countries worldwide.
“The hither-and-thither approach of on-again, off-again tariffs that have little to do with trade policy is causing confusion and uncertainty for importers, exporters and consumers,” Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett added. “Friends, allies and foes are all being hit by distortions in trade flows as importers try to second-guess tariff levels by pulling forward imports before the tariffs take effect. This, in turn, will certainly lead to a downturn in trade volumes by late September because inventories for the holiday season will already be in hand. Meanwhile, U.S. exporters are being left with unsold products as counter tariffs are applied.”
Global Port Tracker, produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
