Market analytics company Circana’s newly released “Future of Home” report forecasts U.S. home-industry dollar sales to grow to $43.7 billion in 2026, up 2.9% from 2025, despite continued pressure on unit demand.
Higher average selling prices, replacement demand, innovation and evolving consumer routines are supporting growth, according to Circana. The market tracker reported that it expects many of the drivers shaping today’s home-products market to remain in place to fuel more growth through 2027, with the home products business reaching more than $45.6 billion in retail dollar sales in 2028.
The Circana growth forecast comes as consumers prioritize products that deliver value at home, from preparing meals and beverages to cleaning and maintaining their homes, noted Joe Derochowski, Circana’s home industry advisor. Another growth factor, he added, comes from heavily used products purchased in 2020 and 2021 that are entering replacement cycles.
“When consumers feel the financial pinch, they tend to eat more meals at home, which can be four to five times cheaper than dining out. Similarly, entertaining at home becomes more common as a cost-saving measure,” Derochowski said. “Additionally, we anticipate that frequently used items purchased in 2020 and 2021 will begin to be replaced over the next few years.”
Derochowski will share his insights on home housewares retail sales for 2026 and beyond during a presentation at the International Housewares Association’s Chief Housewares Executive SuperSession (CHESS), to be held September 29-30 at the Hilton Rosemont near Chicago’s O’Hare airport.
Kitchen appliances are expected to be a key contributor to home-industry growth in 2026. Air fryer dollar sales are forecast to grow 15.6% and espresso makers16.5%, together generating approximately $245 million in incremental sales compared with 2025, according to Circana’s “Future of Home” forecast. Rice cookers are projected to grow 11.4%, slow cookers 8.6% and cooking gadgets 5.2%, Circana added.
Air fryers also demonstrate that growth extends beyond replacement. Among recent air-fryer purchasers surveyed by Circana, 49% said the product was a new addition, versus 27% who were replacing an existing item and 24% who were upgrading or adding another.
Still, replacement demand is becoming an important growth driver as products purchased during 2020 and 2021 age. Among recent purchasers surveyed by Circana, 65% of microwave purchasers, 61% of electric coffee-maker purchasers, and 54% of upright-vacuum purchasers were replacing an existing item.
Half of recent purchases were replacements. Of recently replaced major appliances, 38% were 1 to 5 years old, up 9 percentage points from August 2025, signaling that replacement is increasingly reaching newer products, according to Circana.
Despite economic uncertainty, most consumers surveyed by Circana still plan to proceed with many intended home purchases. This includes 62% of microwave purchasers, 59% of cookware purchasers and 58% of food-storage purchasers.
This selective spending is also benefiting products that address cleaning, comfort and convenience. Circana forecasts robotic vacuum dollar sales to grow 9.1% in 2026, fans 7.1% and stick vacuums 5.9%. Meanwhile, 54% of surveyed consumers said spending more time at home has led them to clean more often or more deeply, up 4 percentage points from a year ago.
“What we’re seeing is not a consumer who has stopped spending, but one who is spending with greater intention,” Derochowski said. “Consumers continue to invest in products that help them save money, simplify routines, improve comfort, and get more value from life at home. As replacement cycles accelerate and innovation continues, we expect those behaviors to support growth opportunities across the home-products market for years to come.”
