Circana reported U.S. retail sales revenue for the combined four weeks ending November 1, 2025, rose 2%, while unit demand remained flat compared to the same period in 2024.
“Consumers appear nimble as they bend and stretch their ability to purchase amid an abundance of headwinds hitting their wallets,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry advisor for Circana. “But the struggle to exceed last October’s soft comps resulting from pre-election distraction makes it clear that their resiliency is being tested heading into the core holiday shopping period.”
Examination of each retail industry provides insight into the consumer’s continued prioritization of spending on food over more discretionary purchases, Cohen noted. Circana reported that food and beverage sales revenue increased 3% year over year, while unit sales increased 1%. Non-edible consumer packaged goods dollars were up 1%, while unit sales declined 2%. Discretionary general merchandise retail dollar sales declined 1%, and unit demand fell 4% compared to the same period a year ago.
Declines in discretionary spending and unit demand as the holiday shopping season gets underway are an indication of current consumer volatility, particularly given last year’s early-season declines, according to Circana. Through the week ending November 8, fourth-quarter 2025 sales revenue of discretionary general merchandise is down 1% from this time last year, and unit demand is down 3%. Compared to two years ago, discretionary general merchandise sales for this period are down 10% in dollars and 9% in units.
As stated in Circana’s 2025 Holiday Purchase Intentions study, overall holiday spending is projected to range from a 1% decline to a 2% increase compared to last year, with unit declines of up to 2.5% during the traditional November and December shopping period.
“The holiday season does not bring more money into consumers’ pockets, which means pockets of retail growth will not be robust,” Cohen said. “Early shopping behavior will influence the balance of the holiday season, so marketers need to put their best foot forward now to capture their share of a discerning market.”
